053
FXUS61 KGYX 221755
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1255 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOR SATURDAY, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTHERN, CENTRAL NH AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE. FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWESTERN ME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOCALLY SLIPPERY ROADS.
2. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IT WILL STILL FEEL BELOW ZERO
COME SUNDAY MORNING DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS. FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA CAN ONSET QUICKLY AT THESE TEMPERATURES FOR ANYONE
WITH EXPOSED SKIN OR INADEQUATE SHELTER.
3. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARDS CAPE COD WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION:
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT HAS TRIGGERED A FEW
SQUALLS OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK AND EXPECT THESE TO ARRIVE IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SQUALLS WILL MAKE ROADS SLIPPERY
QUICKLY AND BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW COULD OBSCURE VISIBILITY ON
ROADWAYS. SNOW SQUALLS LOOK TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING.
SOME FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE SQUARELY
DOWNSTREAM OF A FRIGID AIRMASS ADVECTING ACROSS CONTINENTAL CANADA
INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING, WINDS WILL
BE INCREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TIGHTENS.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL CREATE A PERIOD
OF DANGEROUSLY LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NORTHERN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS WHERE
FRIDAY NIGHT WINDS CHILLS PLUMMET TO 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO. HERE,
FROSTBITE CAN OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES FOR EXPOSED SKIN.
ELSEWHERE, VALUES FALL TO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO WHEN
FACTORING IN WIND. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THESE COLD CONDITIONS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING, WIND CHILL VALUES REMAIN BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE DAYTIME
SATURDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY FOR THE AREA. WINDS LIGHTEN AS THE DAY GOES ON
AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, BUT THE COLD AIR MASS SETTLES NEARBY
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHAT WE LOSE IN WINDS IN PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH, WE
GAIN IN POTENTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR CLOUD-FREE PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER
THERE MAY BE, BUT DO EXPECT A CONSECUTIVE NIGHT OF TEMPERATURES
BELOW ZERO FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION:
THERE CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE AND TOWARDS CAPE COD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD
TREND IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW, WHICH PAIRED WITH AN APPROACHING
SHARP TROF AXIS THAT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS, A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. LATEST ENSEMBLE AND AI BASED
GUIDANCE SHOWS PROBABILITIES FOR TOTAL QPF OF AT LEAST 0.50"
GREATER THAN 70% ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (~1020 HPA) WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR
NORTH OVER QUEBEC, WHICH WILL AIDE IN A SUPPLY OF VERY COLD AIR
ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIALLY DRIER AIR OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN
ZONES. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS) WILL BE RATHER HIGH GIVEN
THIS COLD AIRMASS WITH VALUES LIKELY AROUND 15:1 BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE. THESE RATIOS COMBINED WITH QPF OF AT LEAST 0.50" WILL
LIKELY YIELD SNOWFALL TOTALS INTO WARNING CRITERIA FOR AT LEAST
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT POTENTIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
GIVEN THIS LATEST GUIDANCE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR SOUTHERN NH AND EXTENDING INTO YORK AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES IN ME. THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE LATER EXPANDED BUT
SINCE WE ARE STILL 5+ PERIODS OUT AND THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT POTENTIAL DRIER AIR, KEPT THE WATCH TO WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR NOW. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, SNOW
CHARACTER IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, AND THEREFORE POWER OUTAGES
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
THOUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE OTHER THING TO MENTION
IS THAT GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: VFR, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR LIKELY DUE TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR EXPECTED, LOW CHANCE OF MVFR DUE TO SNOW SHOWER AT
KHIE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS. WNW WINDS AT 15-20 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY LATE DAY THROUGH
THE NIGHT. IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. N WINDS AT
10-15 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SN LIKELY WITH IFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. NNW WINDS AT 10-20
KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH W WINDS AT 15-20 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
MARINE
SCA TO NEAR GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH 5-9FT SEAS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS AND SEAS SLACKEN AND BRIEFLY GO
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SCA TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NEAR THE WATERS. SEAS OF
6-10 FT ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS ALONG WITH FREEZING
SPRAY AND SNOW.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MEZ018>028.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ018-019-023-024.
NH...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NHZ001>006-009.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NHZ007-008-010>015.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NHZ005>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
152.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ154.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ154.
PALMER/TUBBS
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