582
FXUS61 KGYX 230543
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1243 AM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS
VERY COLD AIR IS IS EXPECTED TO POUR INTO THE REGION DURING THE
DAY TODAY, PARTICULARLY THE AFTERNOON. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
REMAIN IN EFFECT. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A IMPACTFUL
SNOW STORM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IT WILL STILL FEEL BELOW ZERO
COME SUNDAY MORNING DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS. FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA CAN ONSET QUICKLY AT THESE TEMPERATURES FOR ANYONE
WITH EXPOSED SKIN OR INADEQUATE SHELTER.
2. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED, WHICH WILL BRING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION:
ARCTIC COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN
QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY. BRUTAL COLD
WILL POUR INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT ON GUSTY NW WINDS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
DANGEROUS AND WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH, EXTREME COLD WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION, SEVERAL CAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD
CAUSE FOR LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL AND BRIEF VERY LOW
VISIBILITIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
GUIDANCE TONIGHT DISPLAYS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY EVENING, TRACKING OUTSIDE OF CAPE
COD MONDAY, AND TOWARDS/JUST EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WOULD BRING A BROAD PRECIP SHIELD OF SNOW SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WILL ENSURE AN ALL
SNOW EVENT, WITH INCREASED SNOW RATIOS CREATING A FLUFFY SNOW
CHARACTER. RESIDENCE TIME OF NET LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BRING
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL, WITH POTENTIAL EMBEDDED BANDING INCREASING
SNOW RATES AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. WHILE A FLUFFY AND IMPACTFUL,
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS OF INCREASED CONFIDENCE, WE ARE STILL A
COUPLE DAYS REMOVED FROM THE EVENT TO SOLIDIFY SNOW TOTALS,
PERIODS OF ENHANCED RATES, AND LOCATIONS OF THESE TWO. THAT
SAID, AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTION TO
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH ITS EAST COAST CHAPTER BEING THE
FINAL ACT. WITHIN THIS WINTER STORM, THERE ARE A HANDFUL OF
NOTABLE FEATURES. STRONG JET DYNAMICS WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD AND
DURING THIS STORM. A DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST SETS IN
MOTION THE STRENGTHENING OF MID/UPPER JET ACROSS THE TN VALLEY,
WITH EXIT REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS COUPLES WITH ENTRANCE
REGION OF DEPARTING UPPER JET ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
CREATING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST.
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST. UPWARDS OF 1400 KG/M/S OF IVT TRACKS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, SUPPLYING
THE DEEPENING STORM WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE FEED. THE MERE
PROXIMITY TO THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MEAN A POWERFUL
CONVERSION WHEN THE COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD CAN SUPPORT SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS NORTH OF 15 TO 1. NBM MEAN BRINGS VALUES TOWARDS
18-20 TO 1 INTO THE REGION.
A TREND TOWARDS DOUBLE DIGIT TOTALS CAN'T BE IGNORED FOR A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA, BUT WOULD LIKE TO
EMPHASIZE THAT AT THIS RANGE SHIFTS IN TRACK CAN MEAN A LOT FOR
ANY INDIVIDUAL LOCATION'S STORM TOTALS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH AREA AT THIS TIME, BUT EXTENDED
PROBABILITIES DO SUPPORT FUTURE EXPANSION OF A WATCH FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY: VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT OCCASIONAL BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 25 KT MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH FOLLOWED BY THE
REST OF THE CWA GETTING 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS LATER ON IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS. WNW WINDS AT 15-20 KTS.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR SUNDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO
MVFR AND THEN AT LEAST IFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SNOW OVERSPREADS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. IFR TO LIFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT IN MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: IFR TO LIFR LIKELY MONDAY AS MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES. SNOW GRADUALLY ENDS MONDAY NIGHT WHILE
IFR LIKELY CONTINUES WITH IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
TUESDAY: VFR LIKELY.
MARINE
SCA WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. GALES THEN DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY OFF THE MIDCOAST AND THEY BAYS WHERE WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER. WINDS AND SEAS DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE
MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS CAPE COD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING
GALES OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS ALONG THE OUTER GULF OF MAINE WITH SEAS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF TEN FEET. WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCAS LIKELY NEEDED FOR THESE
NW WINDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MEZ018>028.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ018-019-023-024.
NH...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NHZ001>006-009.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NHZ007-008-010>015.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NHZ005>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ154.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ154.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/EKSTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page