465
FXUS61 KGYX 231813
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
113 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE, AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH SUNDAY NIGHT'S
WINTER STORM HAVE INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR SOME AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOCALLY SLIPPERY ROADS.
2. AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IT WILL STILL FEEL BELOW ZERO
COME SUNDAY MORNING DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS. FROSTBITE AND
HYPOTHERMIA CAN ONSET QUICKLY AT THESE TEMPERATURES FOR ANYONE
WITH EXPOSED SKIN OR INADEQUATE SHELTER.
3. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED, WHICH WILL BRING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION:
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP, WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL
POSSIBLE AS WELL. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
SNOW SHOWERS, BUT LOCALIZED SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WEATHER TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IT WILL STILL FEEL BELOW ZERO
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING DESPITE
LIGHTER WINDS. FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA CAN ONSET AS QUICKLY AS
10 MINUTES AT THESE TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS FOR ANYONE WITH
EXPOSED SKIN OR INADEQUATE SHELTER.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION:
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE THAT LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO
MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LATEST
ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE IS HONING IN ON LOW PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
BEFORE TRACKING NEAR CAPE COD EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN
TRAVERSING OVER THE GULF OF ME LATE MONDAY BEFORE ARRIVING IN
NOVA SCOTIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC, SUPPLYING OUR AREA WITH COLD AIR AND
THIS COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OFFSHORE WILL SUPPORT AN
ALL SNOW EVENT FOR THE REGION. A SHARP TROF AXIS WILL ALSO BE
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON, PLACING OUR REGION
WITHIN THE JET ENTRANCE REGION, ASSISTING IN UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. THIS WILL AIDE IN A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND HELP
TO PROLONG THE EVENT WITH SNOW LIKELY TO FALL FOR 24-36 HRS.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS WE ARE
STILL 36+ HRS OUT BUT OVERALL FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
UPWARDS WITH DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
LATEST ENSEMBLE AND AI BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER THAN 70%
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.50" OF QPF FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
PROBABILITIES FOR 1.00" OF QPF ARE LOW AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEASTERN NH. DESPITE THIS, GEFS COBB SNOW-LIQUID RATIO (SLR)
PROBABILITIES INDICATE SLRS COULD EXCEED 15:1 WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SLRS APPROACHING 20:1. AS A RESULT, QPF OF AT LEAST 0.50"
COMBINED WITH THESE FORECAST SLRS WILL LIKELY YIELD WARNING LEVEL
SNOWFALL AND THEREFORE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE
ALL OF WESTERN ME AND NH.
SNOW CHARACTER WILL BE DRY, AND GIVEN THIS LIGHT AND FLUFFY
CONSISTENCY, POWER OUTAGES ARE NOT LIKELY. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED THOUGH BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE
AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: VFR, WITH LOCALIZED MVFR LIKELY DUE TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS. WNW WINDS AT 15-20 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SN EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY LATE DAY
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY. N-NNE
WINDS AT 15-20 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SN EXPECTED WITH IFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z TUESDAY. WNW WINDS AT
15-20 KTS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH W WINDS AT 15-20 KTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
WEDNESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS AT 10-20 KTS. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
MARINE
GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 5-8 FT ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN TO SCA LEVELS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 10-15 KTS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SEAS OF 2-5 FT ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE NE WINDS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH PART OF TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES OVER THE GULF OF ME WITH SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS AT
6-12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MEZ018>028.
NH...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NHZ001>006-009.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NHZ001>015.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NHZ007-008-010>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR ANZ154.
DISCUSSION...PALMER/TUBBS
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