993
FXUS61 KGYX 241124
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
624 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE EXTENDED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE BAYS A FEW HOURS THROUGH 11 AM EST BASED
OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU SAT NIGHT.
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SWATHS OF THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THAT TIME BEGINNING THIS MORNING.
2. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL BRING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION:
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS ARRIVED AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS
UNDERWAY. IN THE LARGELY UNBLOCKED FLOW OVER THE MTNS SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. BUT THE MAIN STORY IS THE BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS TAKING
UP RESIDENCE THRU SAT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL STEADILY FALL BEHIND THE
FRONT THRU SUNRISE BUT COUPLED WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
IT WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES OR EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL ZONES. WIND CHILLS TONIGHT
ARE FORECAST LARGELY BETWEEN 15 AND 40 BELOW AT THEIR COLDEST.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RELIEF DURING THE DAYLIGHT EITHER. HIGH
TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS, AT LEAST NOT FOR
VERY LONG, AND MAY NOT GO ABOVE 0 IN THE MTNS AT LEAST UNTIL
SUN. ONCE THE EXTREME COLD WARNING EXPIRES I ANTICIPATE THAT A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE WHITE
MTNS AND WESTERN MAINE MTNS. THE ONLY NOTABLE DEVIATION FROM THE
NBM GUIDANCE WILL BE SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGING OVER FRESH SNOWS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO GO COLDER THAN THE NBM FORECAST, AND INDEED THE
MEDIAN IS ALREADY COLDER THAN THE MEAN. FOR STARTERS I WILL
BLEND IN SOME OF THE 25TH PERCENTILE, WHICH BRINGS THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS DOWN BETWEEN 20 AND 25 BELOW. SO EVEN WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE WIND THIS WOULD REQUIRE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE'RE ENTERING THE
TIME RANGE WHERE WE CAN START PICKING OUT SMALLER FEATURES THAT
CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN SNOW RATES AND TOTALS FOR THE EVENT.
THE PRIMARY MESSAGING STANDS FIRM: SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS
CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL EASILY BLOW AND DRIFT THE FLUFFIER SNOW CHARACTER,
CHALLENGING SNOW REMOVAL IN OPEN AND UNPROTECTED STRETCHES OF
ROADWAY.
ONE SMALLER SCALE FEATURE TO WATCH AMID THE LARGER SYSTEM WILL
BE OCEAN EFFECT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN ME COAST AND NH
SEACOAST. GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIRMASS PRECEDING THE STORM, THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY HARBORING LOCALLY STRONGER LIFT. ONSHORE FLOW SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WOULD BRING SOME SNOW
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR IN YORK AND ROCKINGHAM CO.
FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE COAST COME MONDAY MORNING,
REDUCING THIS ADDED EFFECT, BUT GREATER STORM DYNAMICS WILL
STILL BE IN PLAY.
MESOSCALE BANDING WILL BE ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH AMID A VERY
EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD THROUGH MONDAY. 850/700MB FRONTOGENESIS
DEPICTED IN NAM/GFS RUNS IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS IT LIFTS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE DETERMINISTIC AND NOT
SET IN STONE, THIS CAN PROVIDE GOOD INSIGHT INTO HOW QUICKLY A
STRONGER BAND OF SNOW COULD TRANSIT THE REGION. THE CURRENT
TIMELINE OVERLAPS WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HEAVY SNOW
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FINALLY, A FACTOR THAT COULD HAMPER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL
TREND IN THE STORM HAS BEEN AN EARLIER ONSET AND SLOW NORTHERN
CRAWL. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CONTENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM, THE LIFECYCLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS USUALLY
FEATURES A DRY SLOT CONTINGENT ON THE LOW'S MATURITY. THIS
NORTHERN CRAWL THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BROUGHT THIS FEATURE CLOSER
TO THE FORECAST AREA, NOSING IN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF LESS EFFICIENT SNOWFALL. STILL EARLY TO
FACTOR THIS IN EFFECTIVELY FOR THE FORECAST, BUT AN ITEM TO
WATCH.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THRU MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD, WITH SURFACE GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE THRU MOST OF THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER AND THICKEN SAT NIGHT, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH CIGS STAYING ABOVE 5000 FT.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY: CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER. MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VIS ARRIVES
DURING THE AFTERNOON SW TO NE WITH SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: IFR IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW. LIFR VIS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SNOW BANDS SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
INTENSITY DROPS MONDAY, PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VIS. N WINDS
GUSTING 15 TO 20 KTS FOR MOST TERMINALS S AND E OF THE ME/NH
MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT: TRENDING VFR. WINDS SHIFT NW 15 TO 20 KTS. HIE
MAY KEEP MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: MOSTLY VFR WITH NO SIG WX. W WINDS 15 TO
20 KTS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN NW OF THE WHITES.
MARINE
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OUTSIDE THE BAYS BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT. THOSE WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
SUNRISE WHEN THEY WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU THE
DAY. SOME MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH INTO SAT EVENING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND ALLOWS ANY LINGERING GUSTINESS TO DROP.
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY, TRACKING
NE JUST OUTSIDE OF NOVA SCOTIA BY MONDAY EVENING. CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THIS LOW TRACKS OUTSIDE THE COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF VISIBILITY REDUCING SNOW AND
BUILDING GALE CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTS TO
35 KTS MAY CONTINUE ON THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. WAVES WILL ALSO RAPIDLY BUILD 6 TO 10 FT THROUGH
MONDAY. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SCA TUESDAY. ALSO EXPECT PERIODS
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY GIVEN COLD AIR MASS APPROACHING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MEZ018>028.
NH...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NHZ001>006-009.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NHZ001>015.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NHZ007-
008-010>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ150>153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ151-
153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ154.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/LEGRO
AVIATION...CORNWELL/LEGRO/SCHROETER
MARINE...CORNWELL/LEGRO/SCHROETER
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