116
FXUS61 KGYX 241839
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
139 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN ME AS WELL AS ALL OF NH.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND
POINTS NORTHWARD FOR TONIGHT.
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF
THE BAYS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION.
2. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED, WHICH WILL
BRING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING AND
EVENING COMMUTES ACROSS THE AREA.
3. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. AFTER THE WINTER STORM MOVES OUT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK
OUTSIDE OF SOME PERIODIC MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION:
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A
~1040 HPA SFC HIGH CRESTS OVER THE REGION BEFORE DEPARTING TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. THIS
COMBINED WITH VERY LOW DEW POINT VALUES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OF STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND 20
BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH 0 TO 10
BELOW ZERO IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SOME LINGERING WIND COMBINED
WITH THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW WINDCHILL VALUES
TO FALL TO AROUND 20-25 BELOW ZERO FROM THE FOOTHILLS AND POINTS
NORTHWARD AND THEREFORE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM TO
IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NH AND
THEN INTO WESTERN ME BY TOMORROW EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE
PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE FOR EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A GROWING POTENTIAL FOR
SNOWFALL RATES TO APPROACH 2"/HR SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. IN
ADDITION, INCREASING WINDS WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW, FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITY AND POOR ROAD CONDITIONS.
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE PASSING NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN ARRIVING OVER NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD, A SHARP TROF AXIS WILL BE
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, PLACING US IN THE FAVORABLE JET ENTRANCE
REGION, FURTHER ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND
PROLONGING THE EVENT ACROSS THE REGION. MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IS
ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW HINTS OF A FEW MESOSCALE FEATURES AS WELL
INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE OCEAN ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS PERHAPS AN
INVERTED TROF. THESE FEATURES ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST BUT BROADLY SPEAKING, SE NH AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
THE SW ME COASTLINE COULD BE MOST LIKELY TO BE THESE "HOT
SPOTS."
LATEST ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 0.75-1.00" OF QPF FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH
<=0.50" TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE 15-20:1 RANGE AS ALTHOUGH WE HAVE
STRONG LIFT WITHIN THE DGZ AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AROUND 35 KTS OF WIND AT H850, WHICH
WILL HELP TO BREAK THE DENDRITES AND REDUCE RATIOS. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS A GENERAL LACK OF DRIER AIR ABOVE THE DGZ ZONE, WHICH
SHOULD REDUCE DENDRITIC GROWTH/STACKING SOME. THAT BEING SAID,
THIS WILL BE A DRY/FLUFFY SNOW CHARACTER AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN POWER OUTAGE ISSUES.
A "FRONT END THUMP" OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS STRONG H7 FGEN MOVES NORTHWARD OF THE H850 LOW
TRACK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES UP TO AROUND
2"/HR, WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AND DANGEROUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. FOLLOWING THIS, GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF WINDOW
OF DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN WITHIN THE -12C TO -18C LAYER ON MONDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL LIKELY LOWER SNOWFALL RATES BEFORE THEY
INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS ADDED
MOISTURE AND LIFT ARRIVES FROM THE APPROACHING TROF AXIS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 12-18" IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SNOW
ENDS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
BUT FOR NOW THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE BASED ON
LATEST ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES. CLOSER TO 8-12" IS EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION:
THE WINTER STORM WILL END BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL BE
SLOWLY LOSING IT'S PUNCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO PIVOT
AND MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. PROGRESSIVE RIDGING WILL THEN
APPROACH. HIGHS WILL BE CHILLY ON TUESDAY, RANGING FROM SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS, TO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL/INTERIOR MAINE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW
THEN QUICKLY CROSSES THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
IMPACT OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN AND HIGH
UNCERTAINTY PREVAILS WITH REGARDS TO THE PATTERN. MODELS/ENSEMBLES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE LATE WEEK PATTERN UNTIL
THE EARLY WEEK WINTER STORM IS OUT OF THE WAY. THAT BEING SAID, NBM
TEMPERATURE SPREAD REMAINS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL FRIDAY SO WE MAY HAVE A
BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY ON WED/THURS. THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK
LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHEN
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
NORTH, TO AROUND ZERO SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN MAY INCREASE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL STORM MOVES INTO THE REGION. WHILE THIS
POTENTIAL IS REFLECTED IN SOME WIDESPREAD LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE, IT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DAYS TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION OR MOVE OUT TO SEA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL START TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
SNOW CHANCES ALSO START TO INCREASE. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: IFR IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW.
LIFR VIS POSSIBLE IN PASSING SNOW BANDS SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW INTENSITY
DROPS MONDAY, PERHAPS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VIS. N WINDS GUSTING 15 TO
20 KTS FOR MOST TERMINALS S AND E OF THE ME/NH MTNS.
MONDAY NIGHT: TRENDING VFR. WINDS SHIFT NW 15 TO 20 KTS. HIE MAY
KEEP MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SN.
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY: MOSTLY VFR WITH NO SIG WX. W WINDS
15 TO 20 KTS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN NW OF THE WHITES.
MARINE
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN MORNING. GALE
FORCE NE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS SUN NIGHT- MON
WITH SCA WINDS TO NEAR 30 KTS ACROSS THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 6-12 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS WITH 2-6 FT IN THE BAYS.
GUSTS TO 35 KTS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WAVES IN THE 6 TO 12 FOOT RANGE WILL ALSO
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TO SCA LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. FINALLY,
EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH
TUESDAY GIVEN COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MEZ018-023.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NHZ001>015.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-
153.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/HARGROVE
AVIATION...HARGROVE/CORNWELL
MARINE...TUBBS/HARGROVE
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