844
FXUS61 KGYX 250518
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1218 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MAINE HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO APPROACH 20 INCHES.
GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES EVEN AS WINDS FINALLY RELAX.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS.
2. MAJOR WINTER STORM BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THRU
MON. WIDESPREAD DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED, AND
AMOUNTS APPROACHING 18 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NH AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BUT
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS ARE LIKELY BEGINNING SUN NIGHT
THRU MON MORNING.
3. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. AFTER THE WINTER STORM MOVES OUT MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW RETURN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF SOME PERIODIC MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION:
AS ANTICIPATED WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM TEMPS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN TO OR BELOW NBM MIN TEMPS. AT THE SAME TIME A PESKY BAND
OF CIRRUS IS DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
STALLING THE TEMP DROP. EITHER WAY IT REMAINS VERY COLD AND COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. CALM LOCALES IN THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY MAKE A RUN AT 20 BELOW, WHILE
PLACES THAT MAINTAIN A SLIGHT BREEZE WILL HIT 20 BELOW ON WIND
CHILL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION:
CONSENSUS IS GROWING THAT A MAJOR NOR'EASTER WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THRU MON WITH WIDESPREAD DOUBLE DIGIT
SNOWFALL TOTALS.
TIMING IS MAYBE THE MOST HIGH CONFIDENCE ASPECT OF THE STORM.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY BREAK OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN AROUND 1 PM AND 4 PM. IN ADDITION THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES ARE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM.
OVERALL THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM IS IMPRESSIVE FROM A
MODELING PERSPECTIVE. ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INTENSE PUSH OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED FRONTOGENESIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE COMBINED LIFT, QPF, AND SNOW RATIOS
SUGGEST 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS
THIS FORCING MOVES THRU. THE KEY IS THAT IT IS MOVING AT 700 MB.
THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A FAIRLY UNIFORM SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THEN THE 850 MB FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES THEN STALLS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD THRU THE DURATION OF THE
STORM. THIS FORCING IS LIKELY WHAT WILL GIVE US OUR HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS AS IT WILL HAVE THE LONGEST RESIDENCE TIME OVER
THE SAME AREAS. OVERALL THERE WAS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
SNOWFALL FORECAST EXCEPT TO INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF 18-24 INCHES
WHERE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING STRONG AGREEMENT.
THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL LAST AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS AT
ANY GIVEN LOCATION. TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION:
AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED WINTER STORM EXITS THE REGION, MOSTLY
TRANQUIL BUT BRISK WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THIS IS DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO GYRATE THROUGH THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
PERSISTENT DOSES OF ARCTIC AIR WITH NO SIGNS OF A THAW IN
SIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE IN
THE TEENS, WITH LOWS OFTEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO.
DESPITE THE COLD TEMPERATURES, WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE CALMER
SIDE, WITH PERHAPS A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE ON TUESDAY. SO WHILE
THIS WEEK WILL FEEL BRISK, THE WIND CHILLS SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY
AS BAD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING (JAN 24). OTHER THAN THE
CHILLIER TEMPERATURES, MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU MIDDAY. SNOW WILL
QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP RAPIDLY FROM VFR TO LIFR,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL, IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH PER HOUR OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE, IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z MON. WHILE VIS IS LIKELY TO BE ONE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES ANYWAY, VERY NEAR THE COAST
NORTHEAST SURFACE GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 TO 25 KT THRU MON
MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY: AREAS OF IFR. SNOW CONTINUES BUT INTENSITY WILL BE
DIMINISHING. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH NORTHWEST AND GUSTS AROUND
20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: TRENDING VFR. WINDS SHIFT NW 15 TO 20 KTS. HIE
MAY KEEP MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SN.
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY: MOSTLY VFR WITH NO SIG WX. W
WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS. MVFR CEILINGS MAY REMAIN NW OF THE WHITES.
MARINE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS THE
WATERS THRU MORNING. WITH TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD FREEZING
SPRAY WILL STILL BE A HAZARD AND THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU MID MORNING. THEN ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY
TURN TO DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON
THE OUTER WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING. OVERNIGHT SUN INTO MON WILL BE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL, AND VISIBILITY OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THOSE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO NORTH NORTHWESTERLY THRU MIDDAY MON AS THEY SLOWLY
DIMINISH.
GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS WITH 8-12FT SEAS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LOWER TO SCA
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH 3-6FT SEAS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BEYOND
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
NORMAL AND SCA CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-019>022-024>028-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MEZ018-023.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NHZ001>015.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-
153.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/PALMER
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