474
FXUS61 KGYX 261142
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
642 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVED TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS CREATED A
BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE EARLY
THIS MORNING. AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES LATE MORNING WIDESPREAD
STEADY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RESUME ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES TODAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW WILL BE MORE INTERMITTENT TODAY, GRADUALLY WINDING
DOWN THIS EVENING.
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT
AN UPPER LOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STRONG MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES TO DRIVE MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR.
LARGELY QPF HAS BEEN ON TRACK, BUT THE VERY INTENSE WARM
ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS CLOSER TO
AVERAGE THAN THE NEAR 20:1 THAT NBM WAS FORECASTING. THIS IS
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS. THAT BEING SAID 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT IS TRANSLATING NORTHWARD THRU THE FORECAST
AREA STILL HAS TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN HALF, SO SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM THAT FEATURE ALONE. ALSO DRY
SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM PENNSYLVANIA, AND IS GOING TO SKIRT
THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH MASS. AREAS JUST NORTH OF THIS WILL
REMAIN IN THE SNOWFALL BEING FORCED BY 850 MB FRONTOGENESIS. IT
IS THESE AREAS WHERE AROUND A FOOT HAS FALLEN ALREADY THAT ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE TOTALS APPROACHING 16 TO 18 INCHES BY MORNING.
BOTH OF THESE REGIONS MAY STILL SEE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH OR
MORE PER HOUR.
SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
HAS YET TO PASS OUR LONGITUDE. SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL
BE MORE VARIED THAN IT HAS BEEN SINCE LAST EVENING, BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TWO WINDOWS WHERE DEEPER SATURATION MAY LEAD TO
STEADIER SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. ONE WILL BE AS MID
TO UPPER LEVELS RE- SATURATED AFTER THE DRY SLOT, AROUND MIDDAY.
THE SECOND WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF UNDER POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION. OVERALL THE 12 HOUR QPF FORECAST ARE AROUND
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES SO I COULD SEE A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES
ADDITIONAL BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. SO THE MEAT AND POTATOES
SNOWFALL IS REALLY OCCURING THRU SUNRISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE, WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL
BE SHORT- LIVED, HOWEVER, AS A STUBBORN UPPER LOW MEANDERS
AROUND THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC/MAINE REGION. THIS LOW WILL
PERIODICALLY ROTATE WEAK SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE IT FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LONG TERM, THE GENERAL UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE STUBBORN LOW WILL ALSO KEEP LETTING THE ARCTIC AIR FILTER IN SO
WE SHOULD REMAIN CHILLY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS NORTH, TO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S SOUTH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST WE
MAY START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY. WHILE IT IS STILL
SEVEN DAYS OUT, NBM HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS GENERALLY SMALL SO
THERE MAYBE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL THIS FAR OUT FOR A
MODEST WARMUP. HOWEVER, SPREAD IS STILL RATHER LARGE FOR LOWS
THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. EVEN WITH SOME MORE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOWS, THE COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE LONG
TERM ARE LIKELY TO BE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WHEN THE NBM IS
SUGGESTING LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 BELOW ZERO TO AROUND ZERO.
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SNOWFALL INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH A LULL IN SNOWFALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF MVFR.
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY SNOW INTENSITY MAY BE VARIABLE AND
CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR/LIFR. BUT IT DOES
APPEAR A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SNOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY WHERE IFR IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT. AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING JUST AHEAD OF
THE SECONDARY TROF. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 03Z
AND 06Z TONIGHT WITH VFR LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR BUT LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MOSTLY VFR WITH NO SIG WX. W OR NW
WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS. MVFR CEILINGS WITH PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE NW OF THE WHITES.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST
MIDDAY OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS AND SCA CONDITIONS LINGER THRU THE
TUE FOR ALL WATERS. SNOW WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY INTO THE
MORNING AS WELL, WITH VISIBILITY AT OR BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE INSIDE THE BAYS WHERE
TEMPS REMAIN VERY COLD WEST OF THE COASTAL FRONT INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY THE END OF THE DAY
TUESDAY, WITH 3-6FT SEAS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BEYOND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO GO BACK
AND FORTH BETWEEN NORMAL AND SCA CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-019>022-024>028-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018-
023.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ001>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/PALMER/SCHROETER
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