358
FXUS61 KGYX 271154
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ALLOWED THE GALE WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 7 AM
EST AND REPLACED THE GALES WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS SEAS
REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THRU THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. WHILE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL GET BELOW ZERO,
IT DOES NOT APPEAR IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY HEADLINES.
2. COLD BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE THE WORK WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF A WARMUP OVER
THE WEEKEND. SIGNALS FOR ANOTHER COASTAL STORM ARE APPEARING FOR
THIS WEEKEND BUT MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE RATHER WIDE WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ARISING DUE TO THAT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NWP CONTINUES STRONG AGREEMENT FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. GENERALLY LOOKING AT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL BUT UNLIKELY TO SET ANY
RECORDS. THERE WILL ALSO BE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OFF AND ON
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL DROP WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT BELOW
ZERO, AS COLD AS 10 OR 15 BELOW IN THE MTNS. DURING THE DAY
THOSE VALUES MAY CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR LOW TEENS, BUT
IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL VERY COLD OUT THERE.
OCCASIONAL REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL ARRIVE WITH SHORTWAVE
TROFS PINWHEELING AROUND THE LARGER UPPER LOW, AND WE DO HAVE
OUR EYE ON ONE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT SWINGS THRU SNOW
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. I WILL MAINTAIN
SOME MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DESPITE
THE NBM HAVE LOW OR NO POP INLAND. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE THE
SNOW GROWTH ZONE NEAR SATURATED AND IN THE VERY LOW LEVELS, SO
ANY LIFT IN THAT LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE SOME FLAKES. UNLIKE THIS
PAST EVENING WHERE THE UPPER LEVELS WERE SATURATED AS WELL, THEY
WILL BE DRIER THIS AFTERNOON. SO ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MORE
LIKE A DUSTING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
COLD WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK BUT NOT
BRUTALLY COLD. THERE MAY BE SNOW SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME MID
TO LATE WEEK UNDER MEAN TROUGHING BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM FOR
THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MUCH TOO WIDE AT THIS
JUNCTURE TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IMPACTS HERE. A LARGE PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY
RELEGATES THIS STORM TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS
WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS HERE. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE AND WE WILL OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
IN THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF SNOW
SHOWERS ENDS THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR TONIGHT, EXCEPT AT
KHIE WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR PREVAILING MVFR.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS AS NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. HIE COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN
SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MAINE THIS
MORNING WITH STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH TODAY. WHILE WINDS
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT WITH ELEVATED SEAS. WITH COLD TEMPS
IN PLACE, PERIODS OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY ARE POSSIBLE THRU
MIDDAY AS WELL. AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
WATERS. LOCAL VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE IS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY BUT A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND SEAS MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL
SUNDAY AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ150>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/LEGRO/SCHROETER
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