817
FXUS61 KGYX 301815
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
115 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
MID-MORNING SATURDAY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NH.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AN OUT TO SEA TRACK FOR THE COASTAL LOW
ON SUNDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED ALONG THE COAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW TRENDS IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
DESPITE WINDS BEING LIGHTER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH.
2. A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS BUT SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
3. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY COMBINED WITH
THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING WATER LEVELS TO NEAR
MINOR FLOOD STAGE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
IT WILL REMAIN A BLUSTERY AND COLD AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND GUSTY WINDS KEEPING WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MAJORITY OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A VERY COLD
EVENING AND NIGHT REGARDLESS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO
MORE IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AND DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN SOME OF THE
VALLEYS AND MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. SO EVEN WITH A SLIGHT
BREEZE WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH -15F TO -20F OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY IN SOME AREAS, PROMPTING ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS STILL
COULD APPROACH THE -20F WIND CHILL THRESHOLD, BUT THE ZONE
AVERAGES WERE JUST SHY OF ADVISORY. THE ME LAKES REGION WAS ALSO
JUST SHY OF CRITERIA BY ZONE AVERAGE, BUT STILL COULD SEE WIND
CHILLS OF -10 TO -15F.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. IT
WILL STILL BE COLD, BUT IT WON'T FEEL AS COLD WITH LESS IN THE WAY
OF WIND. STILL, WITH TEMPS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY
LOWER 20S IN SOME COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS, WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER COLD ONE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT, BUT THEN WE MAY START SEEING MORE IN THE WAY
OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. IT'S UNCERTAIN IF
TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OFF IN SOME AREAS, BUT AT THE SAME TIME,
NORTH WINDS SHOULD START TO PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
TIGHTEN, BRINGING DOWN WIND CHILLS. HAVE NOT DEVIATED FROM THE
NBM ON TEMPS, BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST TEMPS COULD BE A FEW
DEGREE EITHER SIDE OF ZERO, AND MOST PLACES AWAY FROM THE COAST
WILL LIKELY AGAIN BE BELOW ZERO WITH DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CLEAR TRACK EAST OF THE BENCHMARK.
THE MOST RECENT RUN ON THE NAM SHOWS THIS AS WELL. THE MORE EASTERLY
TRACK SHOULD KEEP MOST SNOW AWAY FROM NH AND MAINE, WITH MOST PLACES
STAYING DRY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN'T BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THIS WEEKEND, HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE COMBINED WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF COASTAL FLOODING. HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO KICK UP AT LEAST
A 2 FOOT STORM SURGE OR SO, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR PORTLAND AND
HAMPTON TIDAL GAUGES TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE.
THE MOST VULNERABLE AREA FOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO BE IN THE
HAMPTON, NH AREA. THIS IS BECAUSE THE LOW WILL BRING WINDS INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE, AND THEN WILL MEET OVER THE WATERS WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION, WAVES WILL
ALSO BUILD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE SEACOAST.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...HIE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT THIS POTENTIAL
LOOKS LOWER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. VFR PREVAILS AT ALL OTHER SITES.
OUTLOOK:
18Z SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT - PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES.
SUNDAY...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
IS POSSIBLE AT COASTAL SITES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING OVER THE OUTER
WATERS WITH THE THREAT FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY PERSISTING
INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS AND
SEAS SUBSIDE BEFORE PICKING BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEAS OF 2-6FT AND GALE FORCE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL STEADILY
INCREASE TO 6-14FT OVER THE OPEN WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BAYS SHOULD SEE SEAS
OF 3-5FT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WINDS LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY MONDAY
MORNING. OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SLACKEN AS THE LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE GULF, WITH . BEYOND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, 2-4FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NHZ003-005-007>009-011>013-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/PALMER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page