388
FXUS61 KGYX 170020
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
720 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO UPDATE THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. WHILE LIGHT, GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH, ANY ACCUMULATION COULD CAUSE SURFACES TO
BECOME SLICK DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
2. A NARROW AND QUICK MOVING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SWATH OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
EXACT AMOUNTS AND LOCATION REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
3. KEEPING OUR EYE ON THE TRACK OF A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PLOWABLE SNOW FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.
THE MOST UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE INCONSISTENT RH PROFILE IN
THE LOW LEVELS. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SNOW
TO FALL, AREAS WHERE THE MOISTURE DEPTH ISN'T AS CONTINUOUS
COULD SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IDEALLY WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A MORE SATURATED SURFACE LAYER FOR THAT TO BE A BIGGER
THREAT, SO HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES RELATING TO THIS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS DRY, COLD CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR
UNTREATED SURFACES TO SLICKEN QUICKLY.
PRECIP WILL LIGHTEN WEST TO EAST AS TUESDAY PROGRESSES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. UPSLOPE SNOW
COULD CONTINUE ON THE NW SIDES OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACCUMULATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD
IN AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION, THUS MAKING FOR A TRICKY
FORECAST OF POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE TRENDS SEEM TO BE MEETING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO
CAMPS, ECMWF/CANADIAN VS. GFS/NAM, WITH A BAND OF SNOW PASSING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME. NORTHERLY FLOW THAT IS
DRY WILL LIMIT NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT
COMES TO MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. OPTED TO GO BELOW THE NBM MEAN HERE
TO LIMIT QPF EXTENT AND AMOUNTS, FOCUSING ON THE AREA OUTLINED
ABOVE. SHOULD THIS HOLD, THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW COME WED EVENING. WHILE MODELED SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RIDE UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME, THINK THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER COMBINED
WITH ANY DYNAMIC COOLING DUE TO BETTER PRECIP RATES WITHIN THE
BAND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VALUES CLOSER TO THE LOW TO MID 30S AND
PROVIDE MOSTLY SNOW. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
END UP WARMER, CLOSE TO 40, AS THE CLOUD SHIELD MAY ALSO BE
LIMITED WITH ONLY THIN CIRRUS TOWARDS THE NORTH.
ALL IN ALL, CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS A GLANCING BLOW WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES REMAIN THE
GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN NH, WHICH MAY IMPACT THE EVENING
COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THURSDAY IS TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER AND QUIETER DAY HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE
COMPLEX HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM FROM THE
GREAT LAKES COMES UP AGAINST THE BLOCKING HIGH-PRESSURE OVER
EAST CENTRAL CANADA. TRENDS HAVE FAVORED THE SYSTEM TRACKING
SOUTH FORCED BY THE BLOCK, HOWEVER SUFFICIENT OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL
SNOWFALL PARTICULARLY ACROSS NH AND SW ME. THE LATEST FORECAST
HAS QPF OR LIQUID AROUND 0.15-0.5", WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL. BECAUSE THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PINNED TO OUR SOUTH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY COLD ENOUGH TO
FAVOR ALL SNOW. GIVEN THIS SEASON'S TREND OF SYSTEMS GENERALLY
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH AS WE GET CLOSER, IT IS WORTH WATCHING TO
SEE IF THIS DOES THE SAME. AS WE MOVE FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND,
A MODEST REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH THE DRY AIRMASS
WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE BROADER PATTERN LINGERS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PATCHY MVFR DECK WILL CONTINUE TO
INVADE ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS AND INTO SOUTHERN NH TAF SITES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW THICK THIS LAYER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, BUT
SHOULD SEE CONTINUED LOWERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
LIGHT SN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INVASION FROM THE WEST, REDUCING
VIS TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. CIGS MAY SCATTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY IMPROVEMENT
COMES OVERNIGHT, BUT TERMINALS LIKE RKD/AUG WILL TREND VFR WED
AM. TERMINALS TO SOUTH WILL SEE ADDITIONAL THICKENING/LOWERING
AS SN ARRIVES AGAIN. IFR VIS POSSIBLE FOR CON/MHT/PSM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR NORTH WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FOR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A
WEAK WAVE PASSING OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHIFTING WEST TUES NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS THEN BUILD WED NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVING LATE WEEK MAY INCREASE WINDS TOWARDS
GALE FORCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/JAMISON/SCHROETER
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