852
FXUS61 KGYX 170631
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
131 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE. AN
ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION EVENTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND AND
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH, BUT COULD
CAUSE SURFACES TO BECOME SLICK DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
2. A NARROW AXIS OF SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SLICK TRAVEL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND
FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE. SOME NORTH OR SOUTH SHIFTS IN THE AXIS OF
SNOWFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
3. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONE
TO TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH
QUEBEC HAS LED TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST
OF NEW ENGLAND. A LOOK AT LATEST RADAR VS OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST
THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING SNOW FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODEST INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR INTERMITTENT
LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH. NEVERTHELESS A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE THAT COULD PRODUCE SLICK SURFACES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS. DRY AIR ALOFT
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD RESULT IN
BRIEF WINTRY MIX OR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ANY WINTRY MIX IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL SHARPEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
COLLIDES WITH COLD AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING FROM SE
CANADA. THIS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE A SHARP GRADIENT IN
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE GENERALLY
KEEPS ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KLEB TO
KPWM WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NH/MA
BORDER. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME MORE BULLISH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AND THE RRFS THAT BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AS FAR NORTH AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT OF MAINE. HAVE
MAINLY STUCK WITH THE NBM AS IT HAS CONSOLIDATED LIKELY POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH WHILE MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR
NORTH AS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL MAINE. THE GOING
SNOWFALL FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-3 INCHES FROM KLEB TO KPWM AND
POINTS SOUTHWARD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MONADNOCK
REGION. THE TIMING OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLICK TRAVEL DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
ANY NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE AXIS OF SNOWFALL WOULD RESULT IN
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
TWO SYSTEMS APPEAR TO APPROACH THE NORTHEAST OVER THIS WEEKEND. THE
FIRST IS A MATURE LOW THAT SHOULD OCCLUDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A BURST OF SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SOME
MIXING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN SOUTHERN NH. SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES
INDICATE AROUND A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY. SNOW COULD MAKE
ROADS SLICK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WE ARE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON A COASTAL
LOW THAT MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST. MODELS CURRENTLY KEEP THE SYSTEM
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE, WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IF THE STORM TRACK DEVIATES ANY
FURTHER NORTH OR WEST THAN WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY, THE STORM
COULD BRING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PATCHY MVFR DECK WILL CONTINUE TO
INVADE ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS AND INTO SOUTHERN NH TAF SITES.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW THICK THIS LAYER CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, BUT
SHOULD SEE CONTINUED LOWERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
LIGHT SN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS INVASION FROM THE WEST, REDUCING
VIS TO MVFR/IFR BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. CIGS MAY SCATTER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE CLOUD BASES WILL BE AROUND MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: CLOUDS WITH BE SCT/BKN TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND MVFR/IFR THRESHOLDS. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED MVFR TO IFR WITH BE AT KHIE. CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM KLEB TO KPWM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IFR LIKELY AT KMHT, KCON, AND KPSM THROUGH
FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SNOW. VFR NORTH OF KLEB TO KPWM
WITH IMPROVEMENT NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THURSDAY MORNING
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS TODAY
SHIFTING NW WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE
WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH 5 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE OUTER WATERS. NORTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS. WINDS AND SEAS
DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCAS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PALMER/SCHROETER
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