111
FXUS61 KGYX 180107
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
807 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A NARROW AXIS OF SNOWFALL WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SLICK TRAVEL WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. SOME NORTH OR SOUTH
SHIFTS IN THE AXIS OF SNOWFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
2. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE IN
THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE CONDITIONS LOOK
SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY SNOW, THERE REMAINS A WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS FOR SNOW MAGNITUDE AND WHERE IT FALLS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE NORTH, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH A TRANSITION ZONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH. AS A RESULT, A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION TO BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NH AND TOWARDS THE
MASSACHUSETTS STATE LINE. LATEST 12Z FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS
TOTAL QPF OF GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.20" ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
WITH CLOSER TO 1/3RD OF AN INCH TOWARDS THE MONADNOCKS WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF SOME TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A RATHER HIGH DGZ (~600 HPA) WITH THE GREATEST FORCING FOR
ASCENT BELOW THIS LAYER. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE
AROUND 20 KTS OF WIND ALOFT, WHICH WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE
DENDRITES SOME. THEREFORE, SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS (SLR) SHOULD BE
GENERALLY <=13:1. THIS RESULTS IN OVERALL 1-3" OF ACCUMULATION
FROM THE CONCORD REGION AND POINTS SOUTH WITH 3-4" POSSIBLE IN
THE MONADNOCKS. A COATING TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS
THE LAKES REGIONS OF NH AND ME WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW NORTH OF
THIS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THINGS TO SHIFT NORTH/SOUTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN CHANGES TO
EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
TIMING WISE, SNOW MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH BUT SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING
SUN ANGLE SHOULD LIMIT IMPACTS TO MOST AREA ROADS UNTIL CLOSER
TO SUNSET. SNOW WILL THEN END WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE
OF MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEEK IN THE
FRI/SAT TIME FRAME. CURRENT PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED ACTIVE
FORECAST AS STRONG JET BISECTS THE CONUS.
KEY FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING, REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND COMMANDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
THE ONE TAKING PLACE WEDNESDAY OF THIS WEEK, BUT CURRENT
GUIDANCE HAS A FURTHER NORTH CONSENSUS.
AS THE LOW ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKE, SW TO NE JET WILL
SHEAR THE SYSTEM EAST WITH A NORTHERLY PUSH OF IVT. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE SPILLING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL QUEBEC AND ONTARIO
WILL HOLD, PREVENTING MUCH OF THE ENERGY PROGRESSING NORTH AND
INSTEAD ADVECT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING, BUT DIFFERENCES
IN MAGNITUDE AND MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY QPF
AND POTENTIAL SURFACE IMPACTS. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS, TWO
SCENARIOS ENCOMPASS ROUGHLY 66% OF MEMBERS BETWEEN THE GEFS,
ENS, AND GEPS. THE FIRST, HEAVILY WEIGHED TOWARDS THE ENS, IS A
MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
QPF ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO THE SECOND CLUSTER. THE
SECOND, WEIGHED HEAVIER IN THE GEFS AND GEPS, FEATURES A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH GREATER QPF. WHY
THE LOWER QPF DESPITE MORE AMPLIFICATION? PERHAPS QPF FOR THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON LONGEVITY IN THE PRECIP SHIELD
VS. ANY ONE SURFACE FORCING FEATURE. THUS A MORE CONSISTENT WEST
TO EAST FLOW ALIGNS IN A PRECIP AXIS. FOR NOW, RESULTING QPF
WOULD SUPPORT A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT WITH THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE, THERE IS STILL TIME TO
REFINE SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A CLOUD DECK NEAR MVFR THRESHOLDS MVFR
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z AND SOME PATCHY FG MAY BRING
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH 12Z WED WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WED. CIGS
WILL THEN BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN AFTER 18Z WED ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
TAF SITES (KMHT, KCON, KLEB, AND KPSM) WITH -SN DEVELOPING.
SOME RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS KPWM BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS LOW.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NH,
TRENDING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR W/ NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR CIGS APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ACROSS NH WITH SN. IFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SN.
SATURDAY: UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY SN EXITS EAST ALONG WITH
CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: TREND SHOULD BE VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
MARINE
SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS WILL INCREASE TO 3-5 FT LATE TONIGHT
WITH 1-3 FT IN THE BAYS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WED
NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
BUT OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
A PERIOD OF SCA WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. THIS WILL ACCOMPANY LOW
PRESSURE AS IT SLIDES EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SAME TIME,
LOW PRESSURE MAY REDEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. IN NE
WINDS, WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND, BUILDING 5 TO 6 FT OFF THE
NH SEACOAST AND SOUTHERN ME COAST.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/SCHROETER/TUBBS
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