180
FXUS61 KGYX 180636
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
136 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SNOW HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR RAIN AND
SNOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE NH/MA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING ALL SNOW THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING
AROUND MIDNIGHT. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A COATING TO AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OF NH. SOME SLICK TRAVEL IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE
EVENING COMMUTE.
2. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ONE SYSTEM
LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE CONDITIONS
LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY SNOW, THERE REMAINS A WIDE SPREAD OF
SOLUTIONS FOR SNOW MAGNITUDE AND WHERE IT FALLS. MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL STALL
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST AVAILABLE
00Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH MANY MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CONFINED SOUTH OF THE NH/MA BORDER. THE LATEST NBM
HAS COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN BOTH CHANCES FOR SNOW AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH POPS TOPPING OUT AROUND
50 PERCENT ALONG THE NH/MA BORDER. LIKEWISE, SNOW AMOUNTS OF A
COATING TO AN INCH ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA FROM KEENE TO
MANCHESTER AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR AROUND THE TIME FOR THE EVENING
COMMUTE SOME SLICK TRAVEL STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN OCCLUDING LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MAY ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THE
REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD LIMIT WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHEAST,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO STAY COLDER ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR MOST ACROSS OUR AREA, THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY SNOW DESPITE ABOVE FREEZING HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW COULD INTENSIFY AS IT LEAVES NEW
ENGLAND, WITH MEASURABLE SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE. AT THIS POINT, MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING THE MOST WITH
QPF, AS SOME MEMBERS HAVE A MUCH BROADER SHIELD OF SNOW OVER THE
AREA THAN OTHERS. SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING COMMUTES.
WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON A POTENTIAL SYSTEM IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME AS WELL. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM, WITH ALL SOLUTIONS REMAINING ON THE TABLE.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN
TAF SITES WITH ALL SITES TRENDING TOWARDS VFR BETWEEN 07Z AND
11Z. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN NH STARTING AROUND
18Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NH/MA BORDER FROM
21Z UNTIL 04Z. KMHT WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME MVFR
DURING THIS TIME WHILE REMAINING TAF SITES LIKELY STAY VFR.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NH,
TRENDING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR W/ NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR CIGS APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ACROSS NH WITH SN. IFR VIS POSSIBLE IN SN.
SATURDAY: UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY SN EXITS EAST ALONG WITH
CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: TREND SHOULD BE VFR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
MARINE
SEAS ALONG THE OUTER WATERS WILL RUN NEAR 5 FEET THROUGH TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS
TONIGHT. HAVE HOISTED AN SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGS QUIET
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASED NE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. IN NE WINDS, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND, BUILDING 5 TO 6 FT OFF THE NH SEACOAST
AND SOUTHERN ME COAST.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
DISCUSSION...PALMER/SCHROETER
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