807
FXUS61 KGYX 181842
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
142 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN NH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONTINUES TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION NOW EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN NH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW SLIPPERY SPOTS.
2. PLOWABLE SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH IMPACTS ALSO LIKELY TO THE
FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE.
3. A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
CHANGES, LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS KEEPING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. DESPITE THIS, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TOWARDS THE MASSACHUSETTS STATE LINE
WITH A COATING TO PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. SOME RAIN MAY EVEN MIX IN AS TEMPERATURES
ARE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THESE
MINOR AMOUNTS, A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS UNTREATED
AND ELEVATED SURFACES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS
AND 20S ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
500MB TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY WITH PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW OCCLUDING AND GIVING WAY TO A NEW LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF
WESTERN ME WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING SNOW OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
IMPACTS TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NH AND SOUTHWEST ME. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE HOW
QUICKLY OR EVEN HOW FAR THE SNOW PROGRESSES TOWARD CENTRAL ME
AS THERE WILL BE MORE DRY AIR TO BATTLE. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOSTLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SNOW MAY HOLD ACROSS
NH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF.
HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NH AND INTO SOUTHWEST ME WITH ENSEMBLES HAVING HIGH
PROBABILITIES (>60%) FOR OVER 3" WITH LESSER PROBABILITIES FOR OVER
6", ALTHOUGH STILL WORTH WATCHING. SO IT'S REASONABLE FOR THESE
AREAS TO SEE A SWATH OF 3-6" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
CHANGES, LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS KEEPING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OFFSHORE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A MOSTLY DRY DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS IN RESPONSE TO A 500MB
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST, BUT THE LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN
THE LOW TRACKING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP THE
HIGHEST QPF OFFSHORE BUT STILL POTENTIALLY CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING
LIGHT SNOW AND MAYBE GUSTY WINDS TO COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
BEYOND THIS, TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY SEASONAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY OTHER THAN
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH NW WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KTS BY 00Z THU THROUGH
00Z FRI. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY.
SATURDAY NIGHT = SUNDAY: GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW/RESTRICTIONS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: A COASTAL LOW COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS AND
MORE SNOW IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH.
MARINE
N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH, BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLE GALES IS LOOKING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A
COASTAL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM OFFSHORE OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THESE CONDITIONS COULD LAST INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/COMBS
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