445
FXUS61 KGYX 191831
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
131 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
4-8" SNOWFALL EVENT.
KEY MESSAGES
1.CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWSTORM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WHILE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT ONSET TIMING AND LOCATION OF
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS...MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES WILL HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW COVERED ROADS BY
LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
2.CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL TRACK
FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
TOTALS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT STILL MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A LIMITED THREAT OF LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW SPINNING NEAR
DULUTH, MINNESOTA...WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER NOW ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY /SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/
POISED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST. ON THE LARGER SCALE...PRIMARY SURFACE
LOW STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE FRIDAY WITH
A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SCOOTING EAST OVERNIGHT. THE RESULT FOR OUR AREA IS A
BAND OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE 290-300K SURFACES PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A ~6 HOUR PERIOD
OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES BEFORE THE BAND PULLS NORTH
AND EAST.
PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGESTS A QUICK-HITTING BUT HEAVY SNOWFALL
EVENT WITH 4-8" OF SNOW LARGELY FALLING IN A <12 HOUR PERIOD
WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER COATING TO AN INCH AFTER THIS AS MID LEVEL
FORCING DECAYS ALOFT WITH WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING OVERHEAD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. WITH THE NORTHWARD THRUST OF
WARM ADVECTION WEAKENING UPON ARRIVAL...NOTING THAT NEARLY ALL
OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE KEEPS THE WARM NOSE SOUTH OF THE NH/MA
BORDER AND OUTSIDE OF POTENTIALLY A FEW RAIN DROPS MIXED WITH
THE SNOW WHEN PRECIP STARTS TOWARDS THE NH SEACOAST...EXPECT
THIS TO BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT.
THE PRIMARY EVENT IMPACTS...THEREFORE...WILL BE ON TRAVEL WITH ONSET
TIME AND TIME OF DEVELOPING SNOW COVERED ROADS. CONCERNED ABOUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING
COMMUTE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE 19.12Z NAM/3KM NAM
BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON PRECIP ONSET...AND ARE ON THE VERY LATE
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HAVE LARGELY DISCOUNTED THESE
OUTLIERS TODAY...WHICH BRINGS SNOW INTO SOUTHERN NH AROUND OR JUST
AFTER 18Z.
QPF/SNOW: QPF AMOUNTS ARE A LOT MORE BULLISH IN THE V4.3 NBM
THAN THE NEW V5.0 WITH V5.0 LOOKING MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE
PATTERN SETUP AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WITH A FEW HIGHER MESOSCALE MEMBERS APPEARING TO SKEW
SOME OF THE MEAN VALUES HIGHER THAN IS PRUDENT TO FOLLOW UNTIL
THERE IS MORE SUPPORT AMONGST THE BROADER GUIDANCE SUITE.
HEADLINES: IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...WILL HOIST WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NH OUTSIDE OF THE MHT-ASH-PSM
CORRIDOR. QPF AMOUNTS AND CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE...WHERE WE'LL
STICK WITH ADVISORIES FOR NOW. WE/LL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS
IN THE SHORT TERM MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR TO SEE IF
1-2"/HR RATES ALIGN WITH THE COMMUTE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST
WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS. ALSO...HAVE ISSUED ADVISORIES NORTH AND
EAST INTO THE WHITES AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN MAINE FOR 3-6"
AMOUNTS...WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER THE
EVENING COMMUTE...LOWERING OVERALL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SUNDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. AFTER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG
SIGNAL IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND THEN RAPIDLY DEEPENING
AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE
TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS OFFSHORE, BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IF THE LOW WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING LIMITED IMPACTS
IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND
SOUTHERN NH. THERE ARE STILL SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITHIN THE
GFS/ECMWF WITH THE LOW A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHICH
IS YIELDING PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 1" OF SNOW ALONG THE
COAST AND SOUTHERN NH BEING 20-40% WHILE THE PROBABILITY OF MORE
THAN 3" IS EVEN LOWER AT 10-20% WITH THE LATEST RUN.
OTHER THAN A CHANCE OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS A
ALREADY A GOOD SIGNAL TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
MAINLY VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY -SN BEGIN AT MHT, LEB, CON TOWARD THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY NIGHT:CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR AND
LIFR AS SNOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD NH AND WESTERN ME. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP TO LESS THAN 1/2SM AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FROM LEB TO PWM
AND TERMINALS SOUTHWARD. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST.
SATURDAY: GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED FOR THE ME TERMINALS
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS
NH DUE TO LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MOSTLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: A COASTAL LOW MAY BRING MVFR TO IFR
RESTRICTIONS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA. CURRENTLY POTENTIAL IS
HIGHEST FOR COASTAL SITES AND SOUTHERN NH, BUT IF THE LOW ENDS UP
TRACKING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOWER.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR POSSIBLE
AT HIE.
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT
NORTH AND EAST WITH NORTHEAST WINDS STRENGTHENING TO 20-30KTS
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING SATURDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GALES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A
STRONG COASTAL LOW TRACKS NEAR BUT LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO TUESDAY, BUT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE SCA
CONDITIONS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR MEZ012-013-019>021-024>026-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MEZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NHZ002>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NHZ005>011-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NHZ012>014.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARNOTT/COMBS
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