638
FXUS61 KGYX 202010
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
310 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ALLOWED MORE SNOW TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA, AND HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY INTO THE MIDCOAST ME, FAR WESTERN ME, AND NORTHERN NH.
MODELS ARE TRYING TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION FOR MONDAY'S SYSTEM,
WITH STORM TRACK STARTING TO BECOME MORE CERTAIN. HOWEVER, A
WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH MINIMAL SNOW AND
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE SNOWFALL STILL ON THE TABLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BAND, WITH SNOW RATES AROUND 1 INCH
PER HOUR, WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING. THE BAND BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD TRAVERSE SOUTHERN NH THROUGH 6PM. IT CONTINUES INTO
SOUTHERN ME AND CENTRAL NH THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING,
WEAKENING AND SLIDING EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
2. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT, BECOMING
LIGHTER INTO THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6
INCHES IS FORECAST, WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME. SLICK TRAVEL IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY.
3. ON MONDAY NIGHT, AN INTENSE COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE CLOSE TO
THE GULF OF MAINE. AT THE BARE MINIMUM, IT APPEARS THAT LIGHT
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST, BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM IMPACTS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MOST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE. SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
4. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FOR THE MONTH WILL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
PORTLAND. THE HAMPTON AND PORTLAND TIDE GAUGES MAY REACH ACTION
STAGE ON SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND MONDAY'S HIGH TIDE. MONDAY
MORNING'S HIGH TIDE IS LIKELY TO BE THE HIGHEST, AS STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS MAY HELP CREATE SOME WEAK STORM SURGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AT TIME OF WRITING, A HEAVY SNOW BAND WAS MOVING THROUGH MA AND
EASTERN NY, ENTERING SOUTHERN NH. VISIBILITIES IN THIS REGION
HAVE LARGELY BEEN LESS THAN A MILE, WITH MULTIPLE HALF AND
QUARTER-MILE AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS. LSRS HAVE SHOWN A GROUPING
OF 2-4" AMOUNTS IN 2 TO 3 HOURS WITH THIS BAND TOWARDS ALBANY,
NY. AFTERNOON ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40. SNOW WILL LIKELY MELT AT FIRST, BUT HIGHER RATES CAN
OVERCOME THIS CREATING A SLIPPERY SLUSH LATER AS COOLER SNOW
BUILDS ON TOP.
HREF AND REFS MODELED SNOWFALL RATES DEPICT THIS BAND CONTINUING
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NH BETWEEN 2 AND 6PM, THEN LIFTING INTO
CENTRAL NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.
THE BAND WILL BE TRANSITORY, BRUSHING THROUGH THE CWA SOUTH TO
NORTH. OF MORE UNCERTAINTY IS HOW LONG IT WILL BRING ENHANCED
RATES IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION. THIS MAY BE AROUND 1 TO 1.5 HOURS
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR DISPLAY. WHERE NORTHWARD PROGRESS PAUSES,
THE BAND MAY BECOME MORE STATIONARY ACROSS THE WHITES AND
SOUTHERN ME THIS EVENING AS IT BROADENS AND LIFT ESCAPES EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
OTHER THAN THE EMPHASIS ON THE NORTHWARD MOVING SNOWBAND
TONIGHT, SNOW WILL TEND TO FALL AT A MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE
CLIP. RADAR PRESENTATION THIS AFTERNOON SURE EMPHASIZES THE
HEAVY SNOW BAND, BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO FILL BACK IN A LOW PRES
TRAVERSES NEW ENGLAND.
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD ENHANCE LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG THE COAST,
SIMILAR TO A STORM EARLIER THIS SEASON, BUT TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE COLUMN ARE A LOT WARMER. THUS WHILE THE LIFT IS PRESENT,
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS ELEVATED AND ACTUALLY PRETTY THIN. I DID
INCREASE SNOW RATIOS ROUGHLY IN STEP WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING
BAND, BUT OTHERWISE BACKGROUND SNOW RATIOS DECREASE TO AROUND
8:1 ACROSS THE SOUTH, BUT IMPROVE TO 13:1 TO 15:1 ACROSS THE
NORTH. DRY AIR ACROSS THE NORTH SHOULD WHITTLE AWAY AT EARLY
PRECIP, THUS LIMITING OVERALL QPF.
WITH THE CHANGE TO SNOW RATIOS AND REFS RUNS TRENDING NORTH
WITH PRIMARY SHIELD OF SNOW, SNOW AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED ACROSS
NORTHERN NH, FAR WESTERN ME, AND THE ME MIDCOAST. THIS WAS
ENOUGH TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THESE REGIONS.
SNOW RATES SHOULD LOWER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TRAILING LOW HAS
WEAKENED. JUST AN INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7
AM. THUS OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS SW NH
SATURDAY, IT SHOULD BE A GOOD DAY FOR CLEANUP. LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE PRESENT AND TEMPS GENERALLY WARM TO THE LOWER 30S AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...A 500MB TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD
THIS WEEKEND. A LOW MOVING ALONG THIS TROUGH WILL ENTER A REGION
OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE, ALLOWING FOR THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT, JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD. WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY LIES IS IN HOW FAR
NORTH AND EAST THE LOW IS ABLE TO MOVE. STRONG BUT WEAKENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA MAY MOVE IN JUST IN TIME TO KEEP THE
LOW OFFSHORE. GEFS AND AIGEFS SIGNATURES SHOW THAT THE LOW
WOULD TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE BENCHMARK,(40N, 70W) WITH ECMWF
SIGNATURES SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ITS GFS
COUNTERPARTS. ESSENTIALLY, THE MODELS HAVE HAD A PRETTY GOOD
GRIP ON STORM TRACK ITSELF. UNFORTUNATELY, THE TRACK IS A VERY
VOLATILE ONE WITH ANY AMOUNT OF DEVIATION FROM THE AVERAGE TRACK
TRANSLATING TO VASTLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES.
A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FROM HERE WOULD PLASTER A
WINTER STORM ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE LOW TAKES THIS TRACK, THE
LOW COULD PRODUCE NOTABLE SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT SNOW
RATIOS ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 TO 1, SO IT WON'T TAKE MUCH QPF TO
PUT DOWN A LOT OF SNOW. A NORTHERLY TRACK MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS SNOW AND WIND SUBSTANTIALLY OBSCURE
VISIBILITY THERE. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES, THIS OUTCOME OCCURS
IN AROUND 1 IN 3 SOLUTIONS.
ON THE OTHER HAND, IF THE LOW MOVES IN LINE WITH THE AVERAGE OR
SOUTH/EAST OF IT, THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL LIKELY STAY
MOSTLY OFFSHORE. THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY SEE SOME SNOW, BUT
OTHERWISE LIGHTER SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH
THIS TRACK. THIS OUTCOME SHOWS UP IN THE ENSEMBLES ABOUT 2 IN 3
SOLUTIONS, MAKING THIS TRACK THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME. OUTSIDE OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW ALONG THE COAST, IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE
MINIMAL AND REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS.
TIDES COULD REACH ACTION STAGE ON EACH HIGH TIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY MORNING OVER THE
WATERS IS LIKELY TO MAKE TIDES HIGHER ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
PORTLAND, AS THE EKMAN SPIRAL SHIFTS WATER WESTWARD THERE.
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE MINOR, AS LARGELY OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD
HELP PUSH WATER AWAY IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF PORTLAND. THE
HAMPTON TIDE GAUGE MAY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE ON THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY IN
VICINITY TO A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH AND THEN SOUTHERN ME THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY WITH THIS
BAND HAS BEEN FALLING TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES, GENERALLY FOR
AN HOUR TO HOUR AND A HALF AT ANY GIVEN POINT. BEHIND, PRECIP
INTENSITY MAY LEAD TO MORE VARIABLE VISIBILITY, BUT MVFR TO LIFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. VIS IMPROVES
RAPIDLY AFTER 12Z FOR SOUTHERN ME TERMINALS SAT MORNING, THO
MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF NH FOR THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR, SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ALONG THE US/CAN
BORDER.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IMPACTS IN RELATION
TO A PASSING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. CEILINGS MAY TREND MVFR TO
IFR IN SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME.
MONDAY: SNOW POSSIBLE, WITH RESTRICTIONS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE
COAST.
TUESDAY + WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. NNE
WINDS RESPOND OVER THE WATERS, WITH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL MAINLY BE FOR WINDS AROUND
30 KTS, BUT WAVE HEIGHTS ALSO INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FT. A FEW GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE CAN'T BE RULED OUT TOWARDS THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES
EARLY SAT MORNING. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
INFLUENCES THE AREA SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO MONDAY.
GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, WITH STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING
OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS OF 5-9FT EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE, WITH STORM FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS INCREASE TO 6-12FT BY THE END OF THE DAY
MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, LOWERING TO SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MEZ007-008-012-013-019>022-024>028-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NHZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NHZ005>011-
015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NHZ012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/PALMER
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