207
FXUS61 KGYX 211141
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
641 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST HAVE INCREASED QUITE A BIT FROM
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST. NBM TOTALS WERE BULLISH
COMPARED TO CURRENT CONFIDENCE LEVELS. WITH A LARGE MODEL
SPREAD STILL PRESENT, THIS FORECAST REFLECTS A MORE
CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SNOWFALL RATES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH
SNOWFALL BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT AROUND DAYBREAK. ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY ENDS AFTER DAYBREAK WHILE SLICK TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS.
2. THE ODDS FOR PLOWABLE SNOW ALONG THE COAST ARE INCREASING AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND A STRONG COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY, A CLOSER TRACK WOULD ALSO BRING ELEVATED
WIND GUSTS AND A THREAT FOR SPLASHOVER/MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
3. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE ROUGHLY 200 MILES ESE OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO TREK
EAST EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE AN CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO
WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AS SLIDES OVERHEAD LATER THIS
MORNING. LATEST RADAR PRESENTATION SHOWS SHOW REMNANT BANDING
FEATURES OVER WESTERN MAINE ARE WEAKENING WITH BREAKS IN THE
SNOWFALL PUSHING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO 7 AM WITH ADDITIONAL WITH ONLY LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NE TO SW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH
TO THE MID 30S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BRINGS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR PLOWABLE SNOW TO THE COAST, WITH LIGHTER BUT STILL
MEASURABLE AMOUNTS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WITH A CLOSER
TRACK WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WIND GUSTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SPLASHOVER AND/OR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDES. HERE IS WHERE WE STAND WITH RESPECT TO
EACH POTENTIAL IMPACT WITH THE LATEST ROUNDS OF GUIDANCE:
SNOWFALL - THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES
QUITE A BIT FROM THIS TIME LAST NIGHT WITH THE EURO ENSEMBLE NOW
SPREADING 50-60% CHANCES OF GREATER THAN 6" FROM SOUTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY UP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINE COAST. WITH A
70% CHANCE OVER COASTAL ROCKINGHAM. THE GEFS IN AGREEMENT IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, BUT SURPRISINGLY IS NOT AS BULLISH UP
THE MAINE COAST. THE NBM 25-75TH SPREAD REMAINS LARGE (5-25"
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST), BUT THIS COMBINED WITH EVERYTHING
ELSE DOES INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AS
EXPECTED THERE IS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT AS YOU MOVE INLAND AND
THIS IS WHERE THE MOST UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY LIES. BOTH GLOBAL
MODEL CAMPS ARE SHOWING NEAR 100% PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN
3", HOWEVER THE NBM SPREAD REMAINS LARGE AS WE ARE NOW GETTING
INTO THE HI-RES WINDOW AND WHILE MODELS LIKE THE NAM BRING
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW, THE RRFS ONLY BRINGS IT UP TO THE
FOOTHILLS. IN SUMMARY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, WITH LESS CONFIDENCE INLAND.
TIMING HAS ALSO BECOME CLEARER WITH SNOW LIKELY NOT REACHING
OUR AREA UNTIL THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AMOUNTS REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, BUT WITH
HI-RES MODELS NOW IN THE MIX WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOCK ONTO A
MORE CERTAIN TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS - CURRENT GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CAMPS CURRENTLY HAVE A ROUGHLY
50- 70% CHANCE OF WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST LINE. THE HIGHER PROBABILITY
SOLUTION AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREAD 20-30 MPH GUSTS
WITH MORE FREQUENT 30-35 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. FOR THE
WATERS THERE ARE REASONABLY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF STORM FORCE
WINDS (55 MPH OR GREATER) AND THEREFORE A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. SIMILARLY TO THE SNOWFALL JUST A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE
TRACK EITHER WAY CAN CHANGE THIS.
COASTAL FLOODING - THE LATEST SURGE GUIDANCE BLEND WE HAVE BEEN
USING LOOKS A LITTLE BULLISH TO ME AND I THINK ITS A RESULT OF
THE ETSS WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY RUNNING HOT DURING STORMS.
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE IS AROUND 10FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WHEN
THE SYSTEM MAKES IT'S CLOSEST PASS WITH SURGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF 2-2.5 FT OF SURGE. HOWEVER, THE PEAK OF THIS SURGE
OCCURS JUST AFTER THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND THEREFORE
I AM NOT TOO GUNG HO ON ADVERTISING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT
THIS POINT, BUT I DO THINK SOME SPLASHOVER IS POSSIBLE WITH
BUILDING NEARSHORE WAVES. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS, BECAUSE LIKE THE OTHER IMPACTS THIS ONE DEPENDS HIGHLY ON
THE STILL UNCERTAIN TRACK.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
WE FOLLOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WITH MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, BUT MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
POTENTIALLY SOMETHING MORE SIGNIFICANT TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. BEST TO TAKE IT ONE STORM AT A TIME AS THE MODELS DO HAVE
TROUBLE JUGGLING MULTIPLE SYSTEMS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH
OTHER, BUT WORTH A MENTION TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...SNOW MOSTLY ENDS AFTER 12Z WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM
NE TO SW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR LIKELY INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MOSTLY VFR
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: VFR TRENDING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. BY EARLY MONDAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH LOCALIZED
IFR RESTRICTIONS AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. CURRENTLY
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE EXTENT OF THE SNOW, BUT COASTAL
TERMINALS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION GUSTY WINDS
25-30 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THIS
PERIOD.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: CONDITIONS TREND BACK TO VFR TUESDAY AS SNOW
TAPERS OFF AND CEILINGS LIFT AND SCATTER OUT. VFR THEN PREVAILS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WILL
BRING NE WINDS SHIFTING N THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE SCA CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GULF OF MAINE. BY
MONDAY WINDS MAY BE UP TO STORM FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS, WITH
GALES IN THE BAY. WINDS TAPER OFF TO BELOW 25KTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS TOP OUT AT 12-15FT MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
RECEDE BELOW 5FT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150>154.
STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...BARON/SCHROETER
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