380
FXUS61 KGYX 211841
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
141 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NH
AND COASTAL MAINE.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE REGION TO BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG COASTAL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NOR'EASTER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY.
2. STRONG WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A NOR'EASTER TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
3. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHIFT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IS
LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS TO INCLUDE SNOW,
BLOWING SNOW, STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING. WINTER STORM
WATCHES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW - GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE 12Z CYCLE WITH LIMITED NORTHERLY CREEP OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WITHOUT BEING SAID, THE GEFS CAMP IS STILL A BIT FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE EPS, BUT BOTH THE GFSAI AND ECMWFAI ARE IN GREAT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATION. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN NH
AND MAYBE EVEN PARTS OF YORK COUNTY ON THE EDGE OF THE HEAVIER
SNOWBAND LOCATION. WENT WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AT THIS TIME,
BUT THE SEACOAST AND NH/MA BORDER AREA HAS THE LOWEST FORECAST
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS AND WINDS NO MATTER LOOK TO BE VERY GUSTY
ON THE COAST AND A BIT FURTHER INLAND WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS A 970MB LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY THAT WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AND MAKE
TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. EVEN IN AREAS WITH LIGHTER SNOWFALL THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW AND
SNOWFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT AROUND. LARGEST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WINDS WILL BE
STRONG WITH THIS STORM ALONG THE COAST, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS DUE TO TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE TIDES,
WAVES AND PEAK SURGE.
COASTAL FLOODING - WENT WITH A PETSS/STOFS BLEND TO LOWER STORM
SURGE AS ETSS LOOKS HIGH ONCE AGAIN. THIS KEPT PEAK SURGE AROUND
2.5 TO 2.8FT ACROSS THE SEACOAST THAT HAS A MORE FAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR A HIGHER WATER LEVEL. HOWEVER, THE PEAK OF THIS
SURGE OCCURS JUST AFTER THE PEAK OF THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND
THEREFORE I AM NOT TOO GUNG HO ON ADVERTISING MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AT THIS POINT, BUT I DO THINK SOME SPLASHOVER IS
POSSIBLE WITH BUILDING NEARSHORE WAVES. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE
THE HIGHER HAT ON MONDAY MORNING WILL BE BEFORE THE PEAK SURGE
AND WAVES, PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT LOW TIDE AND THE LOWER OF THE
HIGH TIDES ON MONDAY EVENING. WAVES WILL BE BIGGER BY THEN, BUT
OVERALL LOWER WATER LEVELS. LOOKING LIKE A WORST CASE ADVISORY
EVENT AT THIS POINT, HELD OFF ON HEADLINES UNTIL TONIGHT, BUT A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WAS JUSTIFIED AS NOT A SINGLE SITE EVEN
REACHED MINOR STAGE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
WINDS - WINDS LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH
STRONG CONFIDENCE IN A 970MB LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WATERS. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 ALONG
THE COAST AND EVEN HIGHER FOR THE NECKS AND ISLANDS. OVERALL
THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIMITED POWER OUTAGE THREAT FOR COASTAL
AREAS BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER INLAND WITH A LAND COMPONENT
WIND DIRECTION FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES,
LEAVING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW.
WINDS MAY GUST 25-35 MPH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH GOOD MIXING, BUT
THESE SHOULD EASE IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WHILE REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY, WHILE THOSE DOWNWIND STAY DRY WITH SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, THE UPPER PATTERN FAVORS ACTIVE
WEATHER CONTINUING WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION.
THE FIRST ARRIVES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY SNOW
EXPECTED. QPF SIGNALS AMONG ENSEMBLES FAVOR A LIGHT EVENT WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE, BUT THERE A HANDFUL THAT SUGGEST A MORE
AMPLIFIED WAVE THAT COULD PUSH AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER.
THERE'S A LOT MORE SPREAD FOR THE FOLLOWING WAVE IN REGARDS TO BOTH
TRACK AND TIMING. TIMING COULD BE EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE TRACK OF THE LOW COULD BE WELL NORTH INTO
CANADA OR OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. SO NEEDLESS TO SAY THE NBM CHANCE
OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW IS VERY ACCEPTABLE AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY FOR NEXT SATURDAY, BRINGING DRY
WEATHER TO START OFF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MVFR CEILINGS RISING TO
VFR BY THIS EVENING. VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE WITH A COASTAL LOW SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. VISIBILITY ALONG THE COAST
COULD BE VERY LOW, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW ALLOWING FOR
LIFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT, THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MOST IMPACTFUL RESTRICTIONS AS MENTIONED WILL BE ON
THE COAST, BUT PLACES ACROSS THE INTERIOR COULD SEE PERIODS OF
IFR AND LOWER VISIBILITY WITH SNOWFALL MOVING IN AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: MVFR AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT HIE WITH VFR ELSEWHERE.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST 25-30 KT IN THE MORNING BEFORE EASING IN
THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS A
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL.
THURSDAY: ANOTHER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE IT COULD BE CLOSER TO FRIDAY.
MARINE
BRIEF QUIET PERIOD ACROSS THE SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW MID-DAY BEFORE SEAS AND WINDS START TO INCREASE AS A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO ABOUT 970MB BY MONDAY OFF
NANTUCKET ISLAND. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE
WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 15 FEET ON MONDAY. THE LOW RAPIDLY
PUSHES OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT.
GALES POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SCA
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACKS OF EACH
SYSTEM IS LOW.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MEZ018-023-024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ022-025>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NHZ010>015.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...DUMONT/COMBS/PALMER
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