411
FXUS61 KGYX 220700
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
200 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS. A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL
ROCKINGHAM COUNTY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE FOR COASTAL YORK AND ROCKINGHAM
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NOR'EASTER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, BRINGING SNOW, WIND, AND POTENTIALLY COASTAL FLOODING
ON MONDAY.
2. STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
A NOR'EASTER TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
3. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THEN
MORE FLOODING IMPACTS FROM LARGE WAVES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.
4. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY, THE REGION WILL SEE ANOTHER
CHANCE AT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS AGAIN LATE
WEEK. SHOULD THE SYSTEMS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND QUICKLY, LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
RESULT CAUSING SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...SUNDAY NIGHT, A NOR'EASTER WILL
ARRIVE IN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE ON MONDAY. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, GUIDANCE HAS
GENERALLY TRENDED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL ALLOW FOR
VARIED SNOWFALL RATIOS. RATIOS MAY BE LESS THAN 10:1 IN MORE
EXPOSED AREAS, WITH PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER THAN 15:1 ALONG AREAS
WITH MORE VEGETATION. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR VERY LOCALIZED AND
UNEVEN SNOW TOTALS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SNOWFALL LOOKS
TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN THE SEACOAST, WHERE 10-14 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO BLEED
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE. I HAVE UPGRADED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THESE AREAS.
HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS EXCEEDING 35MPH LIKELY IN COASTAL ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY, I OPTED TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING HERE. TRAVEL ALONG
I-95 ON MONDAY WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WITH THE HEAVY SNOW
AND VERY LOW VISIBILITY FORECAST.
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED, WITH
GENERALLY 4- 8 INCHES EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, 1-4
INCHES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG
THE COAST. WINDS MAY GUST TO 50MPH ALONG THE COAST MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS TO 40MPH LIKELY AS FAR INLAND AS KEENE AND AUGUSTA.
OVERALL THIS WILL LEAD TO A LIMITED POWER OUTAGE THREAT FOR
COASTAL AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT HIGH
TIDE AS WINDS INCREASE, SURGE RISES, AND WAVES BUILD. WATER
LEVELS MAY REACH FLOOD STAGE FROM PORTLAND SOUTH, BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO IF ENOUGH SURGE BUILDS UP IN TIME FOR
HIGH TIDE TO BRING MINOR FLOODING AS THE STORM IS JUST RAMPING
UP. WAVES WILL ALSO JUST BE BUILDING UP, SO WAVE IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINOR DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE.
THE TIDE OF MORE CONCERN IS THE MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE,
WHICH IS THE ONE THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, SURGE VALUES OF UP TO 3FT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE, AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 15-20FT JUST OFFSHORE.
THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FOUND ALONG COASTAL YORK AND
ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES, WITH IMPACTS PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING
MOVING SOUTHWARD. DEBRIS ON SHORELINE ROADS, SIGNIFICANT
SPLASHOVER, AND BEACH EROSION ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
MINOR FLOODING IS THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH TIDE, BUT SURGE VALUES AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY TO BE
DECREASING DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WITH DRY AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW.
THIS WILL MAKE TUESDAY BREEZY, PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. GENERAL GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST, AND THE SHIFT IN
WIND DIRECTION COMPARED TO DURING THE PRIOR STORM MAY AGAIN
RELOCATE FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW.
THE WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR LESS PLEASANT
CLEAN-UP CONDITIONS THAN SATURDAY OF THIS WEEK. WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL GENERALLY HOVER IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE
ZERO, BUT RAW TEMPS DO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL QUICKLY APPROACH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE STILL REMAINS SPREAD ON HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY, LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENTERS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES HOW SOUTH THE MAIN LOW TRACKS, WHETHER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LP OF MI, OR STAYING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
CONSOLIDATION OR SECOND DEVELOPMENT COULD THEN ORGANIZE
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MAINE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD BRING A REGION OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
AREA BASED ON ITS QUICK TRACK, BUT LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW STRENGTHENING TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE. RESULTING SNOW COULD IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE.
THE SECOND SYSTEM LATE WEEK (THURS NIGHT - FRI) FEATURES EVEN
MORE SPREAD, BUT AMID THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP IS WELL REPRESENTED.
THE TWO MAIN OUTCOMES LOOK TO BE EITHER A COLORADO LOW EJECTING
OUT OF THE PLAINS (WITH VARYING LATITUDE) AND INTENSIFYING OVER
THE NORTHEAST, OR REMAINING FLATTER ON THE PLAINS EXIT AND
STAYING SOUTH OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. BETTER FEEL FOR THIS
AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AREA WILL BE SORTED ONCE WE GET
THROUGH DISTURBANCES 1 AND 2!
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY SUNDAY. RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE WITH A COASTAL LOW
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. VISIBILITY
ALONG THE COAST COULD BE VERY LOW, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
SNOW ALLOWING FOR LIFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT, THROUGH MONDAY
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOST IMPACTFUL RESTRICTIONS AS
MENTIONED WILL BE ON THE COAST, BUT PLACES ACROSS THE INTERIOR
COULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR AND LOWER VISIBILITY WITH SNOWFALL
MOVING IN AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KTS. MVFR CIGS MAY BE IN
VICINITY OF HIE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: SKIES THICKEN AND LOWER WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS BY WED MORNING ACROSS NH. THIS MOVES EAST INTO ME
ALONG WITH SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SN TAPERS WITH TREND TO MVFR/VFR.
THURSDAY: BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR POSSIBLE, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON ARRIVAL TIME OF NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM LATE
WEEK AND RESULTING AVIATION IMPACTS.
MARINE
A DEVELOPING STORM TRACKS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AND THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE ON MONDAY. STORM FORCE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UP
TO 18-23 FT ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS, WITH GALES IN
CASCO BAY. THE STORM THEN SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT.
SEAS WILL TAKE A DAY OR SO TO BECOME LESS AGITATED FROM THE
EXITING STORM MONDAY, THUS WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN 4 TO 7 FT
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS NEAR OR
NORTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY REDEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE WOULD NEED TO LOOK TOWARDS LATE WEEK FOR
NEXT CHANCE OF PASSING STORM TO INCREASE SEAS/WINDS OVER THE
WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MEZ012>014-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
MONDAY FOR MEZ018-019-023-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MEZ020>022-025>028.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NHZ004-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NHZ006-008>013-015.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST MONDAY
FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/CORNWELL/PALMER
AVIATION...CORNWELL/PALMER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page