708
FXUS61 KGYX 221926
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
226 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BLIZZARD WARNINGS EXTENDED TO ALL COASTAL ZONES IN MAINE AND
THEN WEST TO MANCHESTER-NASHUA AREA IN NH. CONVERTED COASTAL
FLOOD WATCHES TO WARNINGS. WIND FORECAST HAS INCREASED WITH
SNOWFALL FORECAST VERY SIMILAR TO 12 HOURS AGO.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SIGNIFICANT NOR'EASTER WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
COASTAL MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH DECREASING SNOW/WIND AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
2. SIGNIFICANT NOR'EASTER WILL BRING COASTAL FLOODING TO THE
COAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.
3. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE TRACK A CLIPPER ON WEDNESDAY
AND ANOTHER MORE COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
12Z GUIDANCE SUITE JOGGED JUST SLIGHTLY EAST WITH SURFACE LOW
TRACK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
OVERALL EXPECTATION AS WE REMAIN ON NORTHERN EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT
NOR'EASTER THAT PASSES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF
MAINE THROUGH MONDAY.
PRIMARY CHANGE TODAY WAS TO EXPAND BLIZZARD WARNINGS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW 3-4KFT OF MIXING AS FAR WEST AS ASH/MHT WITH
50KTS OF FLOW AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE HOURS OF GUSTS TO 40 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. SIMILAR STORY ALONG THE ME COAST
WITH MOS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25KTS...A GOOD
INDICATOR OF 45MPH+ GUST POTENTIAL AND THUS...THE LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE
A BIT LOWER OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION TO THE VISIBILITY IMPACTS...
THE RELATIVELY DRY NATURE OF THE SNOW WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
WE DO EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS REGION AND INTO
THE MOUNTAINS WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS STILL
CAUSING DIFFICULT TRAVEL. STILL HAVE NO HEADLINES FURTHER NORTH
WHERE IT IS VERY POSSIBLE VERY LITTLE SNOW FALLS. DID ADD
SOUTHERN GRAFTON TO THE ADVISORY IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS
AND MOST RECENT EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS...WITH A BIT OF ADDED
IMPACT FROM GUSTY WINDS.
PEAK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-14" ARE CURRENTLY PAINTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH WITH ROUGHLY 1" OF LIQUID. GIVEN THAT WE/RE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS EVENT...NOTING THAT THE 25TH/75TH PERCENTILE
RANGES ARE STILL RATHER LARGE GIVEN THAT EVEN SMALL DEVIATIONS
IN STORM TRACK COULD RESULT IN MEANINGFUL SNOW AMOUNT CHANGES.
SO...WE DO EXPECT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN FINAL TOTALS...BUT
THE EXPECTED IMPACTS OF POOR VISIBILITY AND BLOWING/DRIFTING ARE
VERY LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE
WITH 2-3' STORM SURGE COMBINING WITH 10-15' NEARSHORE WAVES FOR
MINOR LEVELS OF INUNDATION...BEACH EROSION...AND SPLASHOVER.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE EVENTS IN
JANUARY 2024...AND WIND DIRECTION / WAVES SUGGESTS GREATEST
IMPACTS SOUTH OF PORTLAND AND ESP ALONG THE NH SEACOAST.
WILDCARD IS THE PRESENCE OF ICE IN BAYS/INLETS GIVEN THE COLD
WINTER WE/VE EXPERIENCED...AND WHILE WE CAN/T MODEL HOW THIS
WILL IMPACT THE FLOODING...EXPECT ANY DISLODGED ICE TO SIMPLY
ADD TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH ICE/ROCKS POSSIBLE ON COASTAL
ROADWAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
SNOW RESULTING IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS (20-40%) OF 4" OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN ME,
THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE 2" OR LESS. A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOCAL
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WETTER SYSTEM COULD INTRODUCE
SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE COAST, BUT MAINLY A SNOW EVENT.
PROBABILITIES OF 4" OR MORE ARE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND FEATURE
(30-50%). THE PROBABILITIES OF 6" OR MORE (20-30%) MAINLY INLAND
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM TIMING, GUIDANCE HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT
FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
18Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR TURNING IFR/LIFR AS
LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION BETWEEN 03-12Z FROM S TO N.
CEILING WILL FALL RAPIDLY UPON THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW. WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE, WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KT+ FOR COASTAL AND
SOUTHERN TERMINALS MONDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR
LLWS DESPITE SOME SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20-25KT. SNOW RATES WILL
PICK UP EARLY MON MORNING, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH VSBY'S
DROPPING BETWEEN 0.5-0.25 MILES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 KTS. MVFR CIGS MAY BE IN
VICINITY OF HIE.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: CEILINGS LOWER WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS
BY WED MORNING ACROSS NH. THIS MOVES EAST INTO ME ALONG WITH SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SN TAPERS WITH TREND TO MVFR/VFR.
THURSDAY: BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR POSSIBLE, BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROJECT TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THAT COULD
HAVE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT CASCO BAY WHERE HIGH END GALE FORCE WINDS
WILL OCCUR. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL NEAR 20' IN THE OUTER
WATERS...CLOSER TO 10-15' IN THE NEARSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
TUESDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED
SCAS. ANOTHER...STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MEZ012>014-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST MONDAY
FOR MEZ018.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MEZ019>022.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NHZ004-005-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST MONDAY
FOR NHZ006-008>011-015.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NHZ014.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NHZ012>014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...ARNOTT
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON
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