184
FXUS61 KGYX 231117 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
617 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW MOVE ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
SEACOAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY WITH THE MAINE COAST SEEING HEAVIER BANDS LATER THIS
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SIGNIFICANT NOR'EASTER WILL BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
COASTAL MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH DECREASING SNOW/WIND AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
2. SIGNIFICANT NOR'EASTER WILL BRING COASTAL FLOODING TO THE
COAST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN MAINE.
3. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY, THE ACTIVE PATTERN RESUMES WITH THE
REGION SEEING ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT SNOWFALL AND POSSIBLE SLICK TRAVEL. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE WEEK BUT FEATURES MORE UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...AS OF MIDNIGHT, LIGHT SNOW IS
TRICKLING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. MOST RECENT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS STILL BEEN WAFFLING OVER HOW FAR NORTH THE
SNOWFALL MAKES IT IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT THE GENERAL
TREND APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED EASTWARD TREND IN THE LOW
CENTER. I REMAIN VERY CONFIDENT THAT SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND YORK COUNTY. THE
MIDCOAST WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE SIGNIFICANT TOTALS AS WELL. THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND HEADLINES ARE LARGELY ON TRACK AT THIS
TIME. THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST ARE MAINLY TO
INCORPORATE MORE HI-RES GUIDANCE, WHICH DECREASED SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LEFT TOTALS MOSTLY THE SAME ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE SOUTH.
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A SHARP CUTOFF ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
REGION AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS STILL CAUSING DIFFICULT TRAVEL. STILL HAVE NO
HEADLINES FURTHER NORTH WHERE IT IS VERY POSSIBLE VERY LITTLE
SNOW FALLS.
HEAVY WINDS WITH FALLING SNOW WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS,
EVEN IF LESS SNOW FALLS THAN EXPECTED. TRAVEL ALONG THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY ALONG I-95, US-1 AND NH-101 WILL BE EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS. WINDS MAY GUST TO 50MPH ALONG THE COAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THIS COMBINATION
WILL LEAD TO EXTREME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT FROM LATE MORNING MONDAY UNTIL THE LATE MONDAY
EVENING. SNOW WILL BE DRY, BUT SNOW RATIOS SHOULD NOT
NECESSARILY BE HIGH EITHER. THE DRIER CHARACTER OF THE SNOW
SHOULD HELP PREVENT SNOW FROM LOADING ONTO TREES, AND THIS STORM
POSES A LIMITED POWER OUTAGE THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING ISSUED FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE WITH 2-3' STORM SURGE COMBINING WITH
10-15' NEARSHORE WAVES FOR MINOR LEVELS OF INUNDATION...BEACH
EROSION...AND SPLASHOVER. WATER LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN THE EVENTS IN JANUARY 2024...AND WIND DIRECTION /
WAVES SUGGESTS GREATEST IMPACTS SOUTH OF PORTLAND AND ESP ALONG
THE NH SEACOAST. WILD CARD IS THE PRESENCE OF ICE IN
BAYS/INLETS GIVEN THE COLD WINTER WE/VE EXPERIENCED...AND WHILE
WE CAN/T MODEL HOW THIS WILL IMPACT THE FLOODING...EXPECT ANY
DISLODGED ICE TO SIMPLY ADD TO POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH ICE/ROCKS
POSSIBLE ON COASTAL ROADWAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE STRONG NOR'EASTER WILL LIFT INTO THE MARITIMES BY TUESDAY WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN ITS WAKE. THIS
WILL BRING THE USUAL UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OR AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH.
AFTER THE BRIEF BREAK, A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH SLICK TRAVEL POSSIBLE TO BOTH COMMUTES ON THE TABLE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT
MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST WITH WINDS BEING ONSHORE. THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM AND QPF FROM THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR A
PRETTY LIGHT EVENT WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1-3", BUT HINTS OF A
SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE MAINE COAST COULD PRODUCE A CORRIDOR OF
HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF 4" OR MORE.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST, THERE WILL BE A BREAK, BUT IT
WILL AGAIN BE BRIEF WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHING LATER
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SIGNS ARE POINTING TO THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE MORE
ROBUST MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND HIGHER POTENTIAL QPF, BUT THERE IS
STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK. SO RAIN, SNOW, AND EVEN
A MIX ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER. HOWEVER, A WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHERN AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...STEADY SNOW IS IMPACTING NEW HAMPSHIRE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH 1-2 MILE VISIBILITIES. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT MAINE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KT+ FOR
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN TERMINALS TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
NEED FOR LLWS DESPITE SOME SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20-25KT. SNOW
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP THIS MORNING, PEAKING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH VSBY'S DROPPING BETWEEN 0.5-0.25 MILES. SNOW
DIMINISHES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
EXPECTED. VFR THEN LASTS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: VFR EXPECTED, EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT HIE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN IN NH BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY: LIGHT SNOW AND IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR EARLY WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
MARINE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, WITH SEAS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10-18FT BY THE END OF THE DAY ON
TODAY.
NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH MORE
OF A TRANSITION TO SCA CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY. A MORE POTENT LOW
PRESSURE COULD BRING MORE SCA CONDITIONS AND MAYBE A PERIOD OF GALES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT THE TRACK IS VERY UNCERTAIN. AFTER
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY,
ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ012>014-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ018.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ019>022.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>028.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ004-005-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ006-
008>011-015.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012>014.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/COMBS/PALMER
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