153
FXUS61 KGYX 102352
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
752 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ME
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN ME FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL ABOVE TO EVEN NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL ICE MOVEMENT ON AREA RIVERS THE
REST OF TODAY.
2. LOW PRESSURE LIKELY BRINGS A WINTRY MIX AND SLICK TRAVEL FROM
THE FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN ME NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
PORTIONS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX CAN'T
RULED FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD AUGUSTA AND LEWISTON AND WEST INTO
NORTHERN NH.
3. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SNOW, WINTRY MIX AND RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A VERY WARM REST OF THE DAY IS IN STORE WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREA RIVERS FOR
RISES AS ICE MOVEMENT AND BREAKUP IS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER NH.
MOST WILL REMAIN MILD TONIGHT, BUT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO COOL THINGS DOWN FROM NE TO SW OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS LIKELY BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY THE FOOTHILLS AND AUGUSTA AREA IN ME AS
WELL. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE COLDER AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN ME. A WINTER WEATHER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FOR A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND THE THREAT OF SLICK TRAVEL. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN ME WITH
TODAY'S HI-RES GUIDANCE, I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
GUIDANCE WITH THE CAD AND ERRED ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION TO PUT AN
ADVISORY THERE AS WELL. IT'S POSSIBLE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS LEW-AUG AND WEST
INTO NORTHERN NH...BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT THINGS.
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY
WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT AS BETTER FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
NORTH. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION MAY COME IN WAVES
RATHER THAN JUST BEING STEADY SO A FAIRLY WIDE NET HAS BEEN CAST ON
THE TIME OF THE ADVISORY.
WHILE STILL REMAINING COOL, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING ELSEWHERE TO KEEP PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN WITH FOG AT
TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THAT WILL MAKE
ANY LINGERING WINTRY PRECIP SWITCH TO JUST RAIN. EXPECT THERE
TO BE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SOME PLACES.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS TRENDED EARLIER FOR THURSDAY, MOSTLY LIKELY
IN THE MORNING. A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE COLD AIR MOVING IN, BUT THE MORE NOTICEABLE THING WILL BE THE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE
DAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH LOOK
LIKE A GOOD BET AS MIXING INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
OVER FRIDAY, A COLDER SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL APPROACH NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURE
PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
RAIN/SNOW, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES PREVAILING ALOFT. THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW, THOUGH SOME RAIN MAY MIX IN ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND IN COASTAL AREAS. LIKEWISE, ANY MEANINGFUL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ONLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MOST SNOW
MELTING ON SURFACES ACROSS THE SOUTH/COAST. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS, AS THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WEAK AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
DO SHOW A DRIER PASSAGE OF THE LOW, WITH MANY PEOPLE POTENTIALLY
SEEING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
SOON AFTER THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS THE AREA, ANOTHER MORE
DYNAMIC SYSTEM FOLLOWS SUIT. ON SUNDAY, A WARM FRONT FROM THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
POSSIBLY MORE LIGHT SNOW. AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES OVER THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP RAPIDLY ALOFT. RAIN MAY DEVELOP
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, BRINGING NOTABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR
THE SYSTEM TO CAUSE RIVER RISES AND ICE JAMS AS SNOW CONTINUES
TO MELT ACROSS NH AND MAINE THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...VFR SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING, BUT INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS...POSSIBLY DRIZZLE AS WELL.
IFR TO LIFR IS THEN LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
FOG, RAIN, AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUING. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD
OF WINTRY MIX AT AUG, BUT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LIFR TO IFR REMAINS LIKELY,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
A COLD FRONT EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF CHANGE TO SNOW. OTHERWISE, VFR
RETURNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS (THESE MAY
BEGIN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING) WITH 30-35 KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR, BUT CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS/PRECIPITATION INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: IFR POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST.
SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT: MOST SITES RETURN TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY: POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LATER IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALES MAY OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE FOG MAY ALSO RETURN
TONIGHT, BUT IS MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL WESTERLY GALES MAY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY GALES THEN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PRESSES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, AND THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/EKSTER/PALMER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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