628
FXUS61 KGYX 120623
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
223 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPIRED AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MILD WEATHER AND RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY.
2. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
3. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
4. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO
BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
COLD AIR DAM IS SLOWLY GIVING WAY AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE THRU THE MORNING. THE RISE WILL BE
MOST PRONOUNCED AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES AND HELPS TO MIX
OUT THE INVERSION. IN THE MEANTIME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE PRESENT THRU MORNING AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE
REMNANT SNOW COVER. ALSO WILL BE LOOKING AT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. I DO
THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL MISS US TO THE SOUTH, BUT SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. OVERALL THE
RELATIVELY HIGH CAPACITY FOR STORAGE IN THE LOCAL RIVER SYSTEMS
MEANS THAT THE FORECAST RAINFALL THRU THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
MANAGEABLE EVEN WITH SNOW MELT ADDED TO THE MIX. RIVER ICE
CONTINUES TO GET FLUSHED OUT AS WELL. DESPITE A FEW BREAK UP
JAMS OCCURRING, THE WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY AT OR BELOW
ACTION STAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER LEVELS, BUT AT
THIS TIME DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD FLOODING THREAT. RAIN
SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY AS THE FRONT TAKES ITS
TIME TO CLEAR, BUT ONCE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GET GUSTY THRU THE LATE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SEND A
WARM FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND FRI. A BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION
WILL LIFT THRU THE REGION AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF ASCENT FROM
FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS TO FALL LARGELY AS SNOW. CURRENT FORECASTS ARE A
LITTLE MOISTURE STARVED AND SNOWFALL BRIEF/LIGHT. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT
FARTHER NORTH INTO THE UPPER KENNEBEC RIVER VALLEY A LONGER
PERIOD OF SATURATION COULD ALLOW FOR 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT, ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. UP
HERE, A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. FURTHER
SOUTH, A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW FOLLOWED BY SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LOOKS MORE LIKELY, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW MAY REACH INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN MAINE BEFORE DARK ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS DURING THE DAYTIME WILL HAVE A HARD TIME STICKING TO THE
ROADS FOLLOWING HIGHS INTO THE LOW 40S. BUT ACROSS THE NORTH,
STEADIER PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLIPPERY TRAVEL ARE MORE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS.
THE SYSTEM THEN MOVES OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY,
WITH SNOW SHOWERS ENDING LAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN AND CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CLOUDS THEN BEGIN TO ARRIVE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO TRACK
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN THROUGH QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUT NEW ENGLAND SOLIDLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOW MUCH RAINFALL
MATERIALIZES REMAINS A MAJOR QUESTION AS THE FORCING FROM THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO THE PASSING WARM FRONT AND
THEN COLD FRONT. TAPING INTO DEEP MOISTURE, UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
ON THE SOUTHERN SLOPES IS TO BE EXPECTED. A MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY HINGE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRIPLE POINT
LOW CLOSER THE NEW ENGLAND, SO WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR SIGNS OF
THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RIVER RISES GIVEN THE RECENT SNOW MELT. THESE IMPACTS WILL
MAINLY BE DRIVEN BY THE RAINFALL, WHILE MUCH OF THE SNOWPACK HAS
BEEN LOST THIS PAST WEEK. COLDER AIR THEN FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM
GOING INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE MTNS
THRU MORNING. A PRONOUNCED INVERSION WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR LLWS AT
AROUND 1000 FT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH THRU EARLY MORNING, AND
COASTAL WESTERN MAINE THRU SUNRISE. A FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT AND CIGS TO LIFT OR
SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY MIDDAY. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
COULD RESULT.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW
THAT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS, WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR LIKELY RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT HIE
WHICH MAY HOLD MVFR CEILINGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY: VFR, NO SIG WX. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER IN AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH ANY WINTRY MIX
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN MONDAY MORNING. RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
LIKELY MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT: IFR LIKELY CONTINUES WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU MORNING WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS. IN ADDITION AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU SUNRISE. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN
WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
AFTER WINDS AND SEAS BRIEFLY DIMINISH TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN.
MARGINAL SOUTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WESTERLY GALES ARE THEN MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY GALES ARE
THEN LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/LEGRO
AVIATION...CLAIR/LEGRO
MARINE...CLAIR/LEGRO
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