862
FXUS61 KGYX 131044
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
644 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WITHIN THE BAYS WHILE EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL 11 AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SNOW LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS.
2. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS
THE REGION.
3. ICE JAMS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOME AREA RIVERS BUT THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY ALLOW THEM TO REMAIN IN PLACE
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND SEND
A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI EVENING.
FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS MORE OF AN OCCLUSION OF THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE AND A SECONDARY LOW TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE IN
THE VICINITY OF PENOBSCOT BAY. MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN HAS MID
LEVEL CENTERS ATTEMPTING TO CLOSE OFF OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE END RESULT IS LONGER AND STRONGER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA. NOW EXACTLY
WHERE THAT MID LEVEL DEEPENING OCCURS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS FOR
THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MODERATE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY
THAT GRADIENT IS BOUNCING AROUND CENTRAL NH INTO THE CASCO BAY
REGION. NORTH OF THAT LINE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE,
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE IS MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE. IT COULD
BE AROUND AN INCH AND THEN A DRY SLOT OR IT COULD BE 2 TO 4
INCHES. GIVEN THAT WE HAVE HAD A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT MELT OUT AND
WINTER IS RETURNING IT IS PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO REMIND FOLKS
THAT IT IS STILL CLIMATOLOGICALLY WINTER AND I HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE
SNOWFALL AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE INTO
SAT AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE FORECAST AREA MAY MIX TO AROUND 30 TO 40 KT. SURFACE GUSTS
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH SEEMS FAIR IF THAT ENDS UP THE CASE. WINDS
WOULD INCREASE FIRST ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD THRU
THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A DEEP H5 TROF AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHILE BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, A SFC LOW WILL MOVE NEAR
THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY, SENDING A SFC WARM FRONT NORTHWARD AS
DEEP SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS EARLY TUESDAY,
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF DRIER
AIR.
INCREASING WAA AS THE LOW TRACKS WEST OF THE AREA WILL MAKE THIS
PRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE
FOOTHILLS AND POINTS NORTHWARD. ANOMOUSLY STRONG IVT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS LIKELY WITH THE ECMWF EFI AND ESPECIALLY THE
NAEFS SHOWING A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
ENVIRONMENT WITH SFC DEW POINTS POTENTIALLY CLIMBING INTO THE 50S.
THESE HIGH DEW POINTS COMBINED WITH STRONG S-SE WINDS AND MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID SNOW MELT WHERE
SNOWPACK REMAINS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE FREEZING EVEN
IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE RUNOFF FROM THE MELTING SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH
THE RAINFALL AND REMAINING RIVER ICE WILL INTRODUCE SOME FLOOD
POTENTIAL, MAINLY DUE TO POSSIBLE ICE JAMS. THAT BEING SAID, RIVER
FLOWS REMAIN LOW GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE
STORAGE SPACE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL.
NBM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A RATHER HIGH PROBABILITY (>=70%)
FOR AT LEAST 1.00" OF RAINFALL BUT PROBABILITIES FOR >=2.00" ARE
MUCH LOWER (~20%). THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE SHORT RESIDENCE TIME OF
THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG S-SE WINDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR 80-90 KTS AT H925, WHICH GIVEN MIXING COULD ALLOW
FOR SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH. EVEN THOUGH TREES REMAIN BARE,
WINDS OUT OF THE SE TEND TO CAUSE MORE IN THE WAY OF ISSUES IN OUR
AREA AND THEREFORE POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT... WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THRU MORNING, BUT
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTNS LOCAL IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
WHEN A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE INTO SAT
MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY: CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR SAT AFTERNOON BUT WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY BEFORE BECOMING 10-15 KTS LATE.
SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS WITH -RA POSSIBLE TOWARDS
DAWN ON MONDAY. INCREASING SE WINDS LATE AT 10-20 KTS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: IFR-LIFR CEILINGS IN RA. SE WINDS 25-35 KTS
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO VFR WITH WINDS BECOMING W AT
15-25 KTS.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT THRU THE
MORNING. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH THRU THE AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE
WATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
IN RESPONSE. SCAS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN
SHARPLY WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO SAT. THESE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
GALE FORCE OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
AT LEAST GALE FORCE S-SE WINDS ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS WEST OF THE WATERS. SEAS OF 15-20 FT ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE
OF THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REDUCE
ON TUESDAY AS WINDS BECOME WESTERLY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR MEZ020>022-026>028.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NHZ001>004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NHZ005-006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/SCHROETER/TUBBS
MARINE...LEGRO/SCHROETER/TUBBS
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