701
FXUS61 KGYX 141042
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
642 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE CANCELLED A PORTION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE
SNOW IS MOVING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. KEEP IN MIND EVEN THOUGH
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED, ROADS MAY BE QUITE SLIPPERY
EARLY ON.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. THE BACK
EDGE OF THE APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL IS CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL ME AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, SOME SQUALLY/SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUES TO
BE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT DOWNWIND ALSO.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SNOW WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS
SOME ON THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN THE RATHER PALTRY LOOK TO THE
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. SLIPPERY SPOTS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE.
2. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS ICE JAMS LOOSEN
AND THE REMAINING SNOWPACK MELTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SNOW WILL END EARLY THIS MORNING AS A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM
EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. A LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT AND THE
PASSING OF ANOTHER H5 VORT MAX MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS BUT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
INCREASED MIXING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL JET OF AROUND 60 KTS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MIDDLE
TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODEST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY, BUT WE WILL TRANSITION BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH, TO
THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH.
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A LONG SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH
WILL PUMP PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
LOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE,
THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A LITTLE BIT AND THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IS NOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO ALL RAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS THAT
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE NAEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT PWATS, IVT, AND LOW-LEVEL
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY WILL ALL BE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR (95TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER), SO THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD KEEP THE TOTALS MITIGATED SOMEWHAT EVEN WITH THE ANAMOLOUS
MOISTURE IN THE FORECAST BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE GENERAL TOTALS IN
THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAIN
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY MORNING, LIKELY VACATING THE
FORECAST AREA COMPLETELY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS. FOR MORE ON THE FLOODING AND HYDROLOGY THREAT, PLEASE SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN FOR THE EARLY WEEK
SYSTEM WITH AN ANAMOLOUS LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO RAMP UP MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AT THE 700MB
AND 850MB LEVELS CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARDS THE 99TH PERCENTILE
OR GREATER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE NAEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THIS AIR CAN MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY AFTER IT TAKES THE LONG JOURNEY OVER
THE COLD OCEAN WATERS. WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH
RANGE SEEM REASONABLE BUT A FEW READINGS UP TO 50 MPH AREN'T OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THUS, THERE COULD BE AT LEAST BE SOME POWER
OUTAGE THREAT.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SOME COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WITH VALUES STRUGGLING TO
GET OUT OF THE 20S NORTH OR THE 30S SOUTH. AFTER WEDNESDAY, HIGHS
SHOULD THEN REBOUND TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK WAVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK COULD
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY: CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BETWEEN 09Z-13Z TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT KHIE WHERE CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF -RASN
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT TIMES. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. W WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR LIKELY RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT HIE
WHICH MAY HOLD MVFR CEILINGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY: VFR, NO SIG WX. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER IN AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH ANY WINTRY MIX
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN MONDAY MORNING. RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
LIKELY MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT: IFR LIKELY CONTINUES WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LLWS.
TUESDAY: CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE
DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS WITH SCA
WINDS ACROSS THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS WITH 1-4 FT IN THE BAYS THEMSELVES.
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHEASTERLY GALES ARE THEN LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
HYDROLOGY
RIVER ICE ACROSS THE REGION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
COMING WEEK. ICE WEAKENED BY THE RECENT THAW COULD STILL EXHIBIT
SOME BREAKING AND MOVING OVER THE WEEKEND DESPITE TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHEN AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SYSTEM BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION. PWATS ARE LOOKING AROUND 1.25",
PUTTING IT IN THE 95TH PERCENTILE OR POSSIBLY A NEW MAX. THE EVENT
TOTAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY BE AROUND 1-2", BUT CAN'T RULE OUT LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES IF THE SYSTEM DRAGS OUT ANY LONGER.
FORTUNATELY THE WINDOW FOR SNOWMELT IN THE MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO
BE BRIEF, BUT ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE VALLEYS AND POINTS SOUTHWARD
WILL LIKELY MELT-OUT. THE OVERALL SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTION WILL BE ~0.5-
1". GIVEN FROZEN GROUND, MUCH OF THIS WILL BE PURE RUNOFF AROUND 1
TO 3 INCHES. DESPITE RECENT SNOWMELT, MUCH OF THE OVERLAND STORAGE
REMAINS AVAILABLE DUE TO THE DROUGHT. THE TOTAL RUNOFF REACHING THE
RIVERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO RAISE MANY STREAMS AND RIVER TO NEAR/AT
BANKFULL. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF RAINFALL EXCEEDS APPRX 2
INCHES. REMAINING RIVER ICE WILL BE THE WILDCARD FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING. THE RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.
ICE JAMS ARE WELL KNOWN SPRING FLOOD TRIGGERS, AND ARE GENERALLY
UNPREDICTABLE ON WHEN OR WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP. REPORTS FROM
OFFICIALS INDICATE A LOT OF ICE ROTTED OR AT LEAST WEAKENED
SIGNIFICANTLY FOLLOWING THE RECENT THAW, REDUCING THE ICE JAM RISK
FOR MANY RIVERS. HOWEVER, IT ONLY TAKES ICE 4" THICK TO SUPPORT A
STRONG JAM. INTERESTS ALONG VULNERABLE RIVER LOCATIONS SHOULD BE ON
GUARD AND USE THIS TIME TO PREPARE AND MONITOR CONDITIONS. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT MOST OF THE AREAS RIVER ICE WILL BLOW OUT WITH THIS
EVENT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NHZ001>004.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/HARGROVE/TUBBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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