267
FXUS61 KGYX 142314
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
714 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE. JUST
THE ROUTINE BLENDING OF OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST
AND UPDATE TO THE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXPECT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTY WINDS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
2. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AS ICE JAMS LOOSEN AND THE REMAINING SNOW MELTS.
3. GUSTY WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM TUESDAY, WITH
OTHERWISE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AROUND THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT THERE REMAINS A WIDE ENVELOP
OF OUTCOMES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN IT'S WAKE,
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL CROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL LEAD TO SOME WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOW SHOWERS;
LIKELY RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR/MIDCOAST AND SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BY THE EVENING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO
DIMINISH BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 40 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE, RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 20S
SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM POISED TO IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH
HAS CHANGED REGARDING OUR GENERAL THINKING FOR THE EARLY WEEK
EVENT AS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IS STILL FORECAST BY
VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH
OR GREATER HAVE NOW BUMPED UP INTO THE 80 TO 90+ PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH (NH AND WESTERN ME). ANOTHER SMALL
TREND IS THAT PROBABLILITES FOR TWO INCHES OR GREATER HAVE
INCREASED IN THE PENOBSCOT BAY/MIDCOAST REGION (30 TO 60
PERCENT). THUS, STORM TOTAL VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE BUT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND THE MIDCOAST AND UP IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. NOW THAT WE ARE IN THE RANGE OF SOME OF THE CAMS,
IT ALSO APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY COME IN TWO
WAVES, ONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN THE MAIN WAVE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE BY THE
EVENING HOURS FOR THE SECOND ROUND. MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE A
LULL IN ACTIVITY SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE
NAM NEST IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY SO SOME
THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS WELL AS THE
EVENING. FINALLY, PRECIPITATION MAY START BRIEFLY AS SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX, BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN QUICKLY. SOME MORE
LIGHT SNOW ALSO MAY MIX IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS.
IN GENERAL, THE CONCERN FOR ICE JAM FLOODING HAS DECREASED A BIT
AS LOCAL PARTNER OBSERVATIONS FROM YESTERDAY SUGGEST THAT MORE
ICE HAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE MAJOR RIVERS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE ICE IS STILL
HOLDING ON A BIT STRONGER. LONG STORY SHORT, THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING IS NOT ZERO BUT THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED AND LOCALIZED. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT REMAINING ICE
SHOULD FLUSH OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL STARTS
BUT IT WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
REGARDING THE WINDS: LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY ANAMOLOUS
WITH A 90+ KNOT 850 MB JET IN THE FORECAST. THE QUESTION WILL BE
HOW MUCH MOMENTUM CAN MIX DOWN AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MORE
EXTREME VALUES FROM MIXING DOWN BUT SOME GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE SEEM REASONABLE WHICH COULD BE ENHANCED UNDER ANY
CONVECTION THAT MOVES OVERHEAD. THUS WIND HEADLINES CERTAINLY
LOOK POSSIBLE IN THE FUTURE BUT WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. THE
WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY BUT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TUESDAY WITH
REMAINING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY CAA AROUND 30-40 KTS. ON THE HEELS
OF THE EXITING LOW, THE MIXING HEIGHT SHOULD DEEPEN WITH
UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS A BLUSTERY TUESDAY
WITH WESTERLY GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
GUSTS TO 40 MPH BASED ON SOME MODEL PROFILES AT THIS RANGE. THE
LOW LEVELS COULD REMAIN MIXED INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BUT OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD BE DECREASING.
THE FORECAST AREA THEN TAKES A STEP OUT OF THE ACTIVE PATTERN
WITH STRONGER JETS PLACED NORTH OF THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A QUIETER PERIOD
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. DURING THIS PERIOD,
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS FOR ERRANT
SNOW SHOWERS, BUT NOTABLE QPF AT THIS TIME APPEARS DOUBTFUL.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP COMES LATER THIS
WEEK IN THE FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF MODEL
SPREAD HERE. ECMWF/CANADIAN SEEM TO DEPICT A LOW CUTTING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND, WHILE THE GFS IS VOID OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. EVEN INCORPORATING CLUSTER ANALYSIS THERE IS A
WIDE SPREAD AMID 500MB HEIGHT PATTERNS. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR HOW THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM PROGRESSES THROUGH EARLY TO
MID WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS RELAX A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR THEM TO BE IFR BY THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY - MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS
AS A STORM ARRIVES WITH RA AND FG. LLWS IS LIKELY, WITH STRONG
SE TO S SURFACE GUSTS ALONG AT LEAST COASTAL TERMINALS.
TUESDAY: CIGS SHOULD BE IMPROVING TO VFR FROM MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING. W GUSTS 30-35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH W GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR, NO SIG WX.
MARINE
GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS WITH SCA
WINDS OVER THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS WITH 1-4 FT IN THE BAYS THEMSELVES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
RELAX ON SUNDAY.
LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LIFT INTO QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO AT LEAST
GALE ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE REGION ENTERS A WARM SECTOR
BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. WAVE HEIGHTS RISE 8 TO 15 FT.
COLD FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING W. SOME GUSTS TO GALE MAY REMAIN, BUT GENERALLY WILL BE
NOT AS STRONG AS MONDAY. QUIETER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE NORTHEAST.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...BARON/CORNWELL/HARGROVE
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