814
FXUS61 KGYX 262341
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN NH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WHERE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
WILL MOVE THROUGH. OTHER THAN SOME PONDING OF WATER WHERE
DRAINAGE IS POOR AND MINOR RIVER RISES, LITTLE IMPACT IS
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ENDING BY FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN MAY CHANGE
TO SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.
2. COOLER TEMPERATURES FILTER INTO THE THE REGION IN TIME FOR
THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
PARTICULARLY COOL, WITH MAX AND MIN VALUES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE MARCH.
3. WEATHER PATTERN WILL STAY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AND WINTRY
WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE SLOW TO REACT TO A WIDE WARM SECTOR, BUT
MILD TEMPS LINGER TONIGHT AS RAIN BEGINS.
RAIN RATES WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 8PM AND 2AM TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE FLATLY MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
SLOWLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND EXITING
THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING. THE MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTATION OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO TRAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND
FAR SOUTHERN ME. WHILE DEEPER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT WITH A
LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD MAINTAIN INCREASED RAINFALL
RATES INTO SOUTHERN NH THIS EVENING. THIS HAS BEEN APPARENT IN
RECENT HI RES DATA, WITH REFS/HREF SHOWING A 1-3 HOUR WINDOW OF
RATES AROUND 0.20 INCH PER HOUR.
IMPACTS SHOULD BE LOW, BUT FLASHY STREAMS/SMALL RIVERS WILL
LIKELY REACT OVERNIGHT, REMAINING BELOW ACTION STAGE.
PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY FALL AS RAIN FOR THE AREA, BUT SNOW WILL
MIX IN ACROSS THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE US/CAN BORDER.
WINDS PICK UP LATE TONIGHT, WITH SOME NW GUSTS 15-30 MPH. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ARE MODELED ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND PORTIONS OF
THE MIDCOAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THEIR HIGHS FRIDAY
MORNING AND SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE APPARENT FRIDAY NIGHT
AS LOWS FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S FOR COASTAL/INTERIOR
ME AND SOUTHERN NH. FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, SINGLE DIGITS HAVE
BEEN A CONSISTENT INDICATIONS THAT A SNAP BACK TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS IS ON THE WAY.
HIGHS SATURDAY RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 30S AND LOW 20S, BUT THIS
STILL FALLS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF MARCH. COOL NW
ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
VERY SIMILAR TO FRI NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
NOT MUCH DETAIL TO FOCUS ON NEXT WEEK. OVERALL THE PATTERN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEND TO FAVOR CONFLUENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY TIME THAT OCCURS THERE IS A RISK
FOR COOLER THAN MODELED TEMPS AND AS A RESULT SOME THREAT OF
WINTRY WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT MAY JUST BE IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT I AM NOT WILLING TO RULE IT OUT FOR
ANY PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESI LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE
PERCENTILES SHOW A RANGE OF NO FROZEN PRECIP TO HIGH END
ADVISORY/LOW END WARNING TYPE SNOWFALL. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWING
SOME VERSION OF SNOW AND RAIN FOR MOST ZONES IS FAIR IN MY MIND.
ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE FOCUSING ON TWO PRIMARY
WINDOWS, ONE WED AND ANOTHER AROUND FRI.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND LOWER THIS
EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING. RA OVERSPREADS MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SOME BR BRINGING IFR VIS. SN MOST LIKELY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH, BUT UNCERTAINTY HOW CONTINUOUS THIS IS. CIGS/VIS
IMPROVE EARLY FRI MORNING, BECOMING VFR AT MOST SITES BY 12Z. NW
WIND SHIFT OCCURS BY 6Z, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LIGHT LLWS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT STRONGEST VALUES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR AS WINDS SLACKEN. MVFR CIGS MAY THICKEN FOR
HIE AND ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY: VFR WITH NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY: INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THAT CIGS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. LOW CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS, BUT THEY ARE
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
WATERS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT EXITING FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
MAY REMAIN AROUND 25 KTS ON THE OUTER WATERS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. NW WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH WINDS SLACKENING
INTO THE EVENING.
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS NEXT WEEK MAY ALLOW SEAS TO
STEADILY BUILD ABOVE 5 FT BY MON. WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY GUST
AT TIMES AROUND 25 TO 30 KT. I TEND TO THINK THE NBM IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER COLD WATER,
BUT SOME SCA CONDITIONS OFF AND ON THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SEEMS LIKELY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153-154.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/CORNWELL/LEGRO
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