991
FXUS61 KGYX 291022
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A QUIET COLD MORNING CONTINUES WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS FLOATING
AROUND. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED UNTIL A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MAINLY RAIN AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS.
2. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER TO CONTINUE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO CLIMB MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
NEAR 50F ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN
THIRD SEEING LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
COLD FRONT GETS, THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY BEFORE A CHANGE TO
RAIN. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TRACK WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ALLOWING FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. THERE
WILL BE CONTINUE CHANCES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
POINTS NORTHWARD. AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT MAY ALLOW FOR RAIN SHOWERS
TO END AS SNOW SHOWERS. WHILE THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN
QPF TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE HIGH END AMOUNTS ARE AROUND
1 INCH AND WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACTS. ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TO LESS
THAN 0.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, A 500MB TROUGH SHOULD MOVE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WELL, WITH MODELS
NOT QUITE CERTAIN YET ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GET. IF THE HIGH STAYS TO THE NORTH, MORE DAMP AND RAINY WEATHER
LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, WHILE A SOUTHERLY HIGH
PRESSURE TRACK WOULD KEEP THE NORTHEAST DRY. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS
CERTAIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL, WITH RIDGING ALLOWING FOR POTENTIALLY
SOME ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN STORE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE SW WINDS GUST 15-20 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH SW WINDS GUSTING 15-20 KTS. MVFR CIGS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS THICKEN
AND LOWER MONDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BY
TUESDAY MORNING
TUESDAY: GENERALLY MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CIGS AND RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS
OFF DURING THE DAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS AT NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY: CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR AS LINGERING SHOWERS COME
TO AN END.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW THIS MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS GENERALLY DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING INCREASING SSW FLOW WITH SCAS LIKELY NEEDED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH GALE FORCE OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...PALMER/SCHROETER/HARGROVE
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