529
FXUS61 KGYX 301033
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
633 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER QUIET MORNING TO START YOUR WORK WEEK ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO FRESHEN UP THE AVIATION FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMER AIR ARRIVES TODAY FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURE SWINGS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONT
STALLED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
2. COLDER AIR ARRIVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT
CROSSES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER THINS AFTER DAY BREAK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S NORTH AND 60S SOUTH FOR HIGHS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF QUEBEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINE TONIGHT WHILE LOWS
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OCCURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN MAINE WITH RAIN ELSEWHERE. AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING IT WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND SW MAINE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDER. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 0.75 TO 1.0 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH TO
0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A VERY ACTIVE END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH POTENTIALLY TWO
MORE SYSTEMS ON TAP. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO INCH SOUTHWARD,
FOLLOWING THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM MENTIONED IN KEY MESSAGE
1. A LOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL US, AND MAY ALLOW FOR
WARMER AIR TO USHER INTO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ABOUT
HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD AIR REACHES AND HOW MUCH WARM AIR GETS
ADVECTED. A HIGH POSITIONED FARTHER SOUTH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
SNOW AND WINTRY MIX, WITH A WETTER BUT STILL WINTRY SOLUTION IF
THE HIGH TRACKS FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION, PATTERN
RECOGNITION INDICATES THAT A COLD AIR DAM MAY SET UP WHICH
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE CHANCES TO SEE WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT
LEAST IN THE INTERIOR.
FOR THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE DRIER DAY OF THE
TWO, BUT THERE'S ALREADY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW
COLDER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, BUT MOST CURRENTLY FAVOR RAIN AS THE
PTYPE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR PREVAILS AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER TO IFR/MVFR
CATEGORIES WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY ALONG WITH FOG
AND LOW CEILINGS. RESTRICTIONS RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR
POSSIBLE. BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AT
HIE EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN.
WEDNESDAY: VFR IS POSSIBLE, BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM AT SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO REACH OTHER TERMINALS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO
THE OUTER WATERS INTO TONIGHT. SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DROP BELOW 25 KTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND SEAS
DROP BELOW 5 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCAS LIKELY NEEDED AND
POSSIBLY SOME SW WINDS GUSTING TO GALE FORCE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLIES THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS OF
AROUND 3-6FT ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
DISCUSSION...PALMER/SCHROETER/HARGROVE
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