555
FXUS61 KGYX 301827
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
227 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY
LEAD TO SLIGHT RIVER RISES, BUT THERE REMAINS NO FLOODING
CONCERNS. ICE AMOUNTS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN AMOUNT
AND EXTENT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTIES WHERE THERE MAY
BE TRAVEL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE RIDES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
BRINGING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT
SNOW AND WINTRY MIX BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
2. PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SINK INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
IT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS IT CROSSES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SUGGEST IT MAKES IT JUST SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE STALLING. LOW PRESSURE RIDES THIS BOUNDARY
INTO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING TO MOVE IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW TRACK WILL
PUT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH COLD
RAIN BEING THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE
SITUATIONS WHERE YOU DON'T WANT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FOOL
YOU AS THEY MOST LIKELY OCCUR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DAY WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
BEING WHAT WE SEE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE FRONT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS GOING TO BE TRICKIER. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE STRAIGHT FORWARD, COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND LIGHT SNOW IS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. THIS
IS QUICK HITTING AND LIKELY RESULTS IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM A COATING TO AROUND AN INCH, JUST ENOUGH TO REALIZE
SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. COLD AIR DAMMING
SETS UP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLEET TO MIX IN
THE FOOTHILLS BRIEFLY, BUT SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY IMPACTFUL.
AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WILL BE PLAIN RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER IT DOESN'T LOOK
LIKE IT IS GOING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVER THE WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS RESULTING IN THIS AREA TRANSITIONING FROM SNOW
TO A WINTRY MIX FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN
AREA, THIS MOSTLY OCCURS AT THE HIGHER PEAKS WHICH WILL LIMIT
TRAVEL IMPACTS. I COULD SEE SOME LIGHT ICING LEADING TO SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES
HOWEVER, AS THIS AREA TRANSITIONS THROUGH A WINTRY MIX INTO
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD AIR LAYER
BECOMING SHALLOWER. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS PERIOD AS A RESULT. ICING AMOUNTS LOOK TO END
UP IN THE BALLPARK OF A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS, ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE ADVISORY FOR SLICK TRAVEL, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BE IMPACTFUL
BEYOND THAT. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE QPF AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP
SLIGHTLY, BUT CAMS SUGGEST A MORE SHOWERY/DRIZZLY/FOGGY
AFTERNOON TUESDAY RATHER THAN STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
SIMILARLY, THE SECOND BOUT OF STEADY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
TRANSITIONS TO SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT COMES TO AN
END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. QPF TOTALS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL END UP 0.50 TO 0.75" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
AMOUNTS 0.75 TO AN INCH" IN THE NORTH. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD
SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED THERE.
THIS RUNOFF COULD LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT RISES IN THE MORE
SENSITIVE RIVERS, BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ONCE PRECIP BEGINS TUE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FIND A CLEAR
BREAK, THOUGH MAYBE THE BEST OF THEM WILL BE LATE WED. COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE PUSHED THRU THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL THEN
RETURN NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND DRIZZLE AND DREARY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THU AND MUCH OF FRI, BUT I AM LESS CONVINCED THAT
THE SURFACE FRONT MAKES MUCH PROGRESS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
FORECASTING A SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION. THAT IS A RECIPE FOR COLD AIR DAMMING AND TEMPS
COMING IN UNDER FORECAST. THE NBM IS ALREADY HINTING AT THIS,
WITH A SHARP BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ARRIVES FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THE FOCUS OF THIS WILL BE ALONG THE
MID LEVEL FRONT, WHICH IS LARGELY OVER AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER TO THE SOUTH I STILL THINK THERE IS A REASONABLE
CHANCE FOR FOG, LOW CLOUDS, AND MAYBE DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. ONCE
AGAIN THAT BOUNDARY STALLS AND RETURNS NORTH AND YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. OVERALL I THINK DAYTIME
SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN STUCK ON THE NORMAL/COOL SIDE VERSUS ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS LIKELY REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR AND COULD PUSH THE DAILY TEMP ANOMALIES INTO THE ABOVE
NORMAL RANGE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN ZONES. BUT THE STRENGTH
OF THE COLD AIR DAM WILL DETERMINE THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WITH CEILINGS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR LIKELY AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ALL
TERMINALS SEE RAIN. THIS WILL STILL LIKELY BRING ABOUT IFR
VISIBILITIES WITH IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING CLOSER TO 18Z TUESDAY
AS DRIZZLE AND FOG PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS RAIN MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY: CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS RAIN COMES TO AN
END DURING THE DAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER NORTH OF THE MTNS.
THURSDAY: IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT: IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH LOW CIGS AND MAYBE
DRIZZLE. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
FRIDAY: AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: LOW.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
GET A PERIOD OF SUB SCA CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT
WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. WINDS FLIP AROUND FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE
FLIPPING BACK TUESDAY NIGHT, AND FINALLY FLIPPING AGAIN AS A
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. NORTHEAST WINDS WED NIGHT TURN
GRADUALLY SOUTHERLY BY FRI. SAT MAY SEE THOSE WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BEFORE A BACKDOOR FRONT SHIFT THE DIRECTION BACK
TO EASTERLY. GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND SEAS AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THAT PERIOD. IT WILL ALSO BE AN
EXTENDED WINDOW WHERE AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ008-009.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/LEGRO
AVIATION...BARON/LEGRO
MARINE...BARON/LEGRO
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