117
FXUS61 KGYX 011011
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
611 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AND MOST
SITES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE
FREEZING. THUS, WE WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE ADVISORY A
LITTLE BIT EARLY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR
THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO FRESHEN UP THE AVIATION FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SLIPPERY TRAVEL POSSIBLE WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. HEAVIEST RAIN ENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES BUT SMALLER STREAMS
MAY RISE TO BANKFULL. PONDING OF WATER LIKELY FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
2. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS THE AREA. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FROM FOOTHILLS NORTHWARD SEEING A WINTRY MIX WITH LESS
CERTAINTY TO THE SOUTH.
3. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LIKELY GOING INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LIGHT ICING AND LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SLIPPERY
TRAVEL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM.
THEREAFTER DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME.
FARTHER SOUTH, PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY
THIS MORNING. WHILE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD, MOISTURE
ALOFT WILL AID IN HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS - PERHAPS AN INCH OR
TWO IN SOME AREAS. A FEW SMALLER STREAMS MAY RISE TO AROUND
BANKFULL, BUT PONDING OF WATER IS MORE LIKELY FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE EVEN WITH THE RAIN ENDING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NH.
TODAY APPEARS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL
MOIST AIRMASS LINGERING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING, PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM DURING THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY WORKS
NORTH. HOWEVER, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A SLOWING OF THE WARMTH
SINCE THESE COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR MASSES ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOUGH TO
DISLODGE.
SOME GUIDANCE POINTS TO A RETURN OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH SEVERAL
PIECES OF GUIDANCE REMAINING SOUTH WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY COLD. HOWEVER, A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DESPITE TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISING ABOVE 0C OVERNIGHT, A LACK OF
MECHANICAL MIXING MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB NEAR OR A
LITTLE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NH AS WELL AS FROM
THE LAKES REGIONS OF ME AND NH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND IN
SOUTHERN NH. ANY LINGERING SLICK SPOTS WILL QUICKLY MELT ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND THE HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE MAKES ITS APPEARANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ME WITH 60S IN NH.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS AN H5 S/WV RIDGE
ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE INTO THE 50S AND 60S
BUT A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHERN NH MAY APPROACH THE 70 DEGREE MARK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY AS A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE REGION, LIKELY BRINGING A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO THEN RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH THURSDAY DAYTIME...IMPROVEMENTS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOST TERMINALS MVFR TO VFR AFTER 18Z.
SOUTHERN TERMINALS SUCH AS MHT AND PSM MAY BEGIN TO SEE MVFR
AGAIN TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ATTEMPTS TO MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION. MVFR TO IFR LIKELY THURS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...LIFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED, EXCEPT A WINTRY
MIX IS POSSIBLE AT HIE AND AUG.
FRIDAY: LINGERING LOW CEILINGS, DRIZZLE, OR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, ESPECIALLY IN NH.
IMPROVEMENT IS MORE QUESTIONABLE IN WESTERN ME WITH AUG AND RKD
POSSIBLE HOLDING ON TO LOW CEILINGS ALL DAY.
SATURDAY: VFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: INCREASING CHANCES FOR FOG, LOW
CEILINGS, AND PRECIPITATION WITH IFR POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE AT KHIE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS AS WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
FLIP TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT THEN MOVES SOUTH THIS EVENING FLIPPING
WINDS BACK NORTHEASTERLY FOR TONIGHT.
THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...EASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
THE NORTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN LIKELY INCREASES TO SCA
LEVELS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO CROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTH OF THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AGAIN
INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS, AND THERE MAY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS TURN WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BRING SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS BY TUESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152-
154.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/TUBBS/HARGROVE
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