436
FXUS61 KGYX 011832
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
232 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POPS WERE INCREASED FOR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AS CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ABLE TO ENTER THE REGION AS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES BACK NORTHWARD.
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HAS REMAINED STEADY
AS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN COVERAGE. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THAT MIXED PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT LIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS MOVING BACK NORTH TONIGHT BRINGING
RAIN TO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
2. LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. WHILE AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHTER THAN THIS
PREVIOUS EVENT, MIXED PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE WIDESPREAD. SOME
SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT THE LIGHT AMOUNTS SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINIMAL
3. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN
LIKELY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
4. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER A DRIER DAY, SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN
MAINE HAVE A CHANCE TO GET BACK INTO SOME PRECIPITATION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN, AS LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT AROUND 33-35F IN
THIS AREA. HOWEVER I DID ALLOW FOR SOME WINTRY MIX ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD, BASICALLY A LINE FROM
LEBANON, NH TO PORTLAND, WHERE SOME SNOW FLAKES AND/OR SLEET
MAY BEGIN TO MIX IN IF THEY DROP DOWN TO 31-32F.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THURSDAY ENDS
UP DRY AFTER THE SOUTHERN PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN AS IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH LEADING TO SOME
CLEARER SKIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOUTHERN AREAS
WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME SHAKING THE CLOUDS AND THE RESULT IS
GOING TO BE A PRETTY UNIFORM DAY TEMPERATURE WISE, WITH IT
ENDING UP IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ENTERS THE REGION AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE QPF LOOKS MUCH
LIGHTER THAN WHAT WE JUST PREVIOUSLY SAW WITH THIS EARLY WEEK
EVENT, MIXED PRECIPITATION LOOK LIKE IT COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SITUATING ITSELF OUR NORTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE STREAMING COLD AIR INTO THE AREA DROPPING
TEMPERATURES TO RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK AREA WIDE. ALOFT
WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDS; A
RECIPE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS SOME
DIFFERENCES IN WHAT EXACTLY THIS WILL LOOK LIKE, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN SEEING MAINLY PLAIN RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA COULD SEE MORE OF A MIXED BAG
OR JUST STRAIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THE HRRR IS IN THE
CAMP OF A MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, BUT THE NAMNEST IS FAVORING MORE SHOWERY/DRIZZLY
ACTIVITY WITH SOME STEADIER BOUTS IN THE NORTH DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE HRRR IS ALSO COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AT ONSET. WITH ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY,
I AM OK ROLLING WITH THE NBM FOR NOW UNTIL IT IS CLEARER WHAT WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH COVERAGE WISE. EITHER WAY, THE LIGHT QPF
SHOULD MINIMIZE IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF POTENTIALLY SLIPPERY TRAVEL
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COULD SEE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
NEEDED EVENTUALLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES AGAIN, BUT WILL KICK IT TO
THE NEXT SHIFT TO SEE IF MODELS CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON COVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AS IT
PASSES, EXCEPT FOR SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT THIS SHOULD
CLEAR UP ONCE THE WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.
500MB RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
OVERALL WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH 50S TO 60S IN SOUTHERN NH BUT
COOLER IN THE 40S AND 50S IN WESTERN ME AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AND
ALLOW A QUICK INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. LATER IN THE DAY
AND TOWARD EVENING, LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
BOUNDARY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THEN INTO SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT THIS AS
A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT (EXCEPT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN
ZONES COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX) WITH ENSEMBLES MEANS FROM THE
ECMWF/GFS ADVERTISING A 0.25" TO 0.50" OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM.
EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP, TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO
REACH THE 50S-60S IN NH AND MOSTLY 50S IN ME.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FROPA WITH BEING EITHER SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY, OWING A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MONDAY BEING COOLER, BREEZY, AND
DRIER, EXCEPT UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH THE 500MB TROUGH STILL YET TO CROSS THROUGH, THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CU FOR AREAS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS.
ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WOULD BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON IMPROVE TO
VFR BY THIS EVENING. PSM, MHT, AND CON SEE LIGHT RAIN MOVE IN
TONIGHT WHICH BRINGS THEM BACK TO MVFR WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. LEB AND PWM MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS, BUT IT IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE AND IF THEY DO IT MAY BE WINTRY. CON MAY ALSO SEE A
WINTRY MIX AT TIMES. CONDITIONS THAN SLOWLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS DETERIORATE QUICKLY AS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF FEATURING A WINTRY MIX AND BRINGING ABOUT IFR
CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY: IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE MORNING, BUT IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR IS LIKELY AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT: IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG.
SATURDAY: MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NH. THE NH TERMINALS
COULD SEE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY RAIN),
FOG AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS MAY START TO
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
MONDAY: MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT HIE.
OTHERWISE, VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS IS KEEPING WAVE HEIGHTS
ELEVATED, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS
THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, ENDING UP SOUTHERLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SWITCH W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THEN QUICKLY TURN NORTH TO EAST ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THESE MAY ALSO CONTAIN
GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS. FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SCA GUSTS LIKELY, BUT
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS
WINDS BECOME W/WNW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151.
DISCUSSION...BARON/COMBS
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