108
FXUS61 KGYX 152322
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
722 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS NOW MADE ITS WAY JUST ABOUT TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AT THIS POINT IN THE EVENING SO HAVE
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDER CHANCES RETURN AROUND MIDNIGHT AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OFF ON PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN
NEW YORK WILL BE APPROACHING. HAVE ALSO LIMITED THE EXTENT OF
THUNDER OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLER AND STABLE
AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BEST POSSIBILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE WILL BE DOWN ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS STATE LINE
WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL HIGH AT THIS HOUR.
ALSO FRESHENED UP THE AVIATION DISCUSSION TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.
2. WARMER TEMPS CONTINUE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY.
3. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
4. A COLD FRONT BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND THEN COOLER, DRIER, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO START
OUT NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED JUST WEST OF MAINE/NEW
HAMPSHIRE BORDER TODAY, WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM
WEST TO EAST. WHILE MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS WARMED INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S, MUCH OF MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
REMAINS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT MAKES
SOME FURTHER PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
EXPANDING THE COVERAGE OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS INLAND OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT, REMNANT MCS SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO ROLL
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING SHOWERS AND SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN THERE IS
ANOTHER CHANCE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER REMNANT
SYSTEM FROM THE MIDWEST PASSES THROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT, AND 50S TO THE WEST OF IT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE FRONT DRIFTS A BIT BACK TOWARD THE EAST TOMORROW, YIELDING
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. 60S ARE EXPECTED IN MOST OTHER AREAS, WHILE HIGHS IN
THE 50S LOOK MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL
MAINE. AREAS OF FOG, DRIZZLE, AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THURSDAY. WITH THE WARM AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. THE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE MARINE LAYER, WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOESN'T MOVE
OFFSHORE UNTIL FRIDAY, WHICH KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ONGOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ON FRIDAY, PROBABLY
LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND INTO SW ME TO START OUT
WHILE A 500MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING AND EVEN A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE NAM BRINGING
MORE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY, WHICH SHOULD LOWER PRECIP
CHANCES AND DECREASE CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S BUT COULD BE COOLER IF THE
CLOUDS OR PRECIP STAY AROUND LONGER. ALSO, SOME AREAS MAY SEE FOG IN
THE MORNING.
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
LOW AND UPPER LEVELS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A LOT OF DRY
AIR ALOFT. SO, SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY DURING THE DAY (EXCEPT
IF THE LL MOISTURE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DZ NEAR THE COAST), BUT THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS COULD BRING MARINE STRATUS AND FOG COASTAL AREAS,
AND THIS COULD LINGER NEAR THE COASTLINE THROUGH SATURDAY. FOG AND
LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND EARLY, BUT THIS
SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S INLAND AND COOLER NEAR THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
WET WEATHER THEN RETURNS AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY. ALSO, PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN, FOG AND STRATUS
WILL PROBABLY COME BACK ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR MAINE AND MAY BE DENSE. AS FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
ENSEMBLES DEPICT 0.25" TO 0.50" OF RAIN WITH HIGHER TOTALS CLOSER TO
0.75" POSSIBLE.
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BEING
EITHER LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT, AND RAIN COMING TO AN
END AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE DAY MONDAY, BUT IT
WILL ALSO BE COOLER AND BREEZY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND PERHAPS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
RETURNING BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR TO MVFR GIVE WAY TO IFR OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG, ALONG WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY NEAR THE VICINITY OF MHT OVERNIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. LIFR IS MORE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY INLAND, WHILE ONLY SOME IMPROVEMENT TO POSSIBLY MVFR IS
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST. CEILINGS LOWER AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING DUE TO FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH COASTAL FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE.
SATURDAY: IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO MARINE FOG AND
STRATUS AT THE COASTAL SITES, BUT FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR INLAND DURING
THE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR FOR INLAND TERMINALS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY, AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO, AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR, EXCEPT MVFR REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT HIE.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE COAST. AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNDER
SCA LEVELS FRIDAY, BUT FOG IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
THAT WILL CROSS THROUGH SWITCHING WINDS TO MORE NE LATER IN THE
DAY. MORE FOG AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, BUT ARE MORE LIKELY WITH THE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN ALLOW CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...BARON
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/COMBS
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