977
FXUS61 KGYX 161028
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS MORNING'S UPDATE. A LITTLE
BIT OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF MAINE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SOME FOG MAY HANG AROUND SOME
LOCATIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING A
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF SHOWER COVERAGE.
3. A DAMP AND CLOUDY WEEKEND, WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
4. CRISP AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK, BUT THE LONG-
RANGE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED DEEPER INTO THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES
A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA TODAY. A SEABREEZE WILL BE PUSHING
BACK AT IT, BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA, MOST LIKELY NEW
HAMPSHIRE, WILL END UP IN THE WARM SECTOR. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
HELP TO ALLOW THIS AREA TO CLEAR OUT A BIT WHILE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM CONVECTION IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION ROLL OVER THE
RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN ZONES KEEPING THEIR POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT LOWER. THE LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A SWATH OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. WITH 500-1000 J/KG INLAND INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE LACKING, BUT LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO GET UP TO 7-7.5 C/KM IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AROUND THE TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING IN
(AROUND 6 PM). BULK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS FAVORS
CELLULAR STRUCTURE AND THE CAMS ARE SHOWING THIS INITIALLY AS
WELL. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF
TORNADO WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF LOW LAYER SHEAR PRESENT, BUT THIS
WILL BE ISOLATED. STORM MODE LOOKS TO BECOME MORE MULTICELLULAR
AND MAYBE EVEN LINEAR AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES AND THIS IS WHERE
THE PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST.
OVERALL THE THREAT WINDOW LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 5PM TO 11PM WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE INITIALLY, BUT QUICKLY PROGRESSING TO A
PRIMARY WIND THREAT. SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE REST
OF THE AREA SEEING MORE RUN OF THE MILL TYPE THUNDERSTORMS AS
THEY WILL WEAKEN MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND MORE NORTHERN
INLAND ZONES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN CLOUDIER. THE BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH OFF THE COAST WITH MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AS A QUASI- STATIONARY
FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN HI-RES GUIDANCE ON HOW EXACTLY THIS PANS
OUT. SOME RUNS HAVE HAD THE FRONT CLEARING EARLY WHICH WOULD
CAUSE LITTLE FANFARE AS THE TROUGH CROSSES IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT
RECENT RUNS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER TO CLEAR IT AND RESULT IN A
MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE WILL BE TIME TO IRON OUT THE DETAILS WITH MORE RUNS, BUT
FOR NOW A WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS SEEMS REASONABLE. DRIER
AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT SO WHEN EVER IT DOES PUSH OUT WE CAN
EXPECT A BREAK IN THIS SHOWERY PATTERN EVEN IF IT'S BRIEF.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SQUASHED SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THAT IS
LIKELY IT FOR "WARM" TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ON SATURDAY A 1030 MB HIGH DEVELOPS NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. WHILE
COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST ALL WEEK DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND SEABREEZES, A STRONGER
PUSH OF EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING FARTHER INLAND. THE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD PEAKS AT 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FOR
INTERIOR ZONES, BUT REMAINS BELOW 5 DEGREES ON THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, SUGGESTING A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY FURTHER INLAND, BUT
LOCAL EXPERIENCE SHOWS COLD AIR USUALLY WINS IN THESE SETUPS.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK NIL ON SATURDAY WITH A DRY
LAYER ALOFT, BUT MOIST LOW-LEVELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME
MIST/DRIZZLE NEAR THE COAST.
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IS ALSO ON THE HIGH
SIDE SUNDAY, INDICATING TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS
WEEK, DYNAMICS WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE, OWING TO A 500 MB JET
STREAK NOSING INTO THE REGION AND RATHER ROBUST HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT. CURRENT NBM MEAN QPF OFFERS 0.30-0.50", WITH THE HIGHER
TOTALS FOCUSED NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY. THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS BELOW AN INCH
REGIONWIDE, OWING TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT. PWATS
SURGE TO OVER AN INCH ON SUNDAY WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. CRASHING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST
RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
COLD AND CRISP TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE REGION. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY OFFER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, WITH A HARD FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY
TUESDAY MORNING. LONG STORY SHORT, IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH
THAN APRIL. GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
COLD THOUGH, THANKS TO THE HIGH SUN ANGLE.
A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES EVIDENT LATER INTO
NEXT WEEK. AN ANOMALOUS BLOCK DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM
GREENLAND TO NORTHERN QUEBEC, EFFECTIVELY FORCING THIS WEEKEND'S
TROUGH TO RETROGRADE WEST AND DETACH FROM JET STREAM FLOW. IT
IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS, BUT DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON TROUGHING RETURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK WITH A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN.
CHILLY AND WET CONDITIONS ARE SUGGESTED WITH SUCH A PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...IFR/LIFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND COASTAL FOG
START THE TAF PERIOD AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. INLAND
TERMINALS SHOULD START TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR
AFTER THIS, BUT LOWER CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST LONGER AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. CLOSER TO 00Z FRIDAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE REGION WHICH MAY REINTRODUCE
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE IN LEB, MHT, AND CON SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THEIR VICINITY IS MODERATE, WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
BY 06Z FRIDAY WITH JUST LINGERING SHOWERS AND LIKELY LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR TO START, WITH IFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE LATE WITH
MARINE FOG PUSHING INLAND.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
MARINE FOG AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL SITES, BUT FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR
INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN LIKELY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR, EXCEPT MVFR REMAINS POSSIBLE
AT HIE.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
MARINE
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS WIND GUSTS REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS. WINDS START LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL QUICKLY TURN ONSHORE AS
A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OFF THE
COAST. THEY WILL STAY THERE THROUGH FRIDAY AND BE A BIT BREEZIER
AS A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.
MORE FOG AND STRATUS ARE LIKELY FROM EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/BARON/HARGROVE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page