620
FXUS61 KGYX 162310
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
710 PM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS EVENING FORECAST UPDATE.
STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES SO FAR THIS
EVENING AND WITH THE LINER CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK
STILL HOURS AWAY THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA IS
DECREASING, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAKING THE
JOURNEY. OTHERWISE, WE CAN JUST EXPECT RAIN (SOME POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN) OVERNIGHT.
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS.
3. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ALONG WITH DRY PERIODS MIXED IN BETWEEN. A STEADIER PERIOD OF
RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND ARE ADVECTING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO
INTERIOR NEW HAMPSHIRE WHILE ESE WINDS ARE HOLDING THE MARINE LAYER
IN PLACE ACROSS MAINE AND FAR EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
SW NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STARTED TO DESTABILIZE.
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NH
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON PROVIDING FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THE 12Z HREF CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE 5 PM TO 10 PM TIME
RANGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. STORMS THAT TRACK TO
THE NH/ME BORDER WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER MARINE AIR AND POSE LESS
OF A SEVERE THREAT INTO MAINE. CAMS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A FEW
DISCRETE CELLS WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP OVER UPSTATE NY AND VT AND
TRACK INTO WESTERN NH BETWEEN 6-8 PM. IF THESE DISCRETE CELLS
ARE ABLE TO MATERIALIZE THEY WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPER CELL STRUCTURES THAT WILL POSE BOTH A
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO
SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FROM 8 PM ONWARD
CAMS BRING ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS THE NH WITH STORM MODE
FAVORING MULTI CELL CLUSTERS AND SMALL LINE SEGMENTS. THESE
STORMS WILL PRIMARY BRING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, ALTHOUGH THE
LATER ARRIVAL OF STORMS PAST SUNSET WILL WORK AGAINST THIS
THREAT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST MAINE TO
THE COAST BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY DO SO. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 11 PM WITH SHOWERS AND FOG LINGERING
OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ONE MORE WARM DAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS LATER IN THE DAY. INCREASING SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS INTO 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MID-LVL RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS MAINLY INTO THE 50S ACROSS
WESTERN ME WITH LOWER 60S IN NH. CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY AS OVERNIGHT
LOWS FALL ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 40S. A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ACCOMPANYING WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. DRIER WEATHER THEN
IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ARRIVES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN SEVERAL DAYS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY... A MARINE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE IFR/LIFR
AT KRKD AND KAUG OVERNIGHT. FARTHER WEST, KPWM AND KPSM WILL
SEE MVFR LOWER TO IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT AND A TS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. VFR LIKELY CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING
AT KCON AND KMHT AND A TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM 00Z TO 03Z.
VFR AT KHIE AND KLEB WILL GIVE WAY TO CHANCES FOR MVFR IN
SHOWERS PAST 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND
LOWERING CIGS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BRING IFR TO LIFR EVERYWHERE
OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL REMAIN AROUND IFR THRESHOLDS FRIDAY MORNING
AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH MANY TERMINALS VFR BY 20Z.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS. NE WINDS AT 10-15
KTS.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. E-SE WINDS AT
10-20 KTS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY
BEFORE RA DEVELOPS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS. S-SE WINDS BECOMING NW.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH W-NW WINDS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY. A
STALLED FRONT OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF FOG INTO
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK INTO
THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT.
OTHERWISE, WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...BARON
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER/TUBBS
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