150
FXUS61 KGYX 170625
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS WE APPROACH A
DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMER AND DRIER FRIDAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
2. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
3. CRISP AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK, BUT THE LONG-
RANGE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED DEEPER INTO THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A QUICKER EXIT FOR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING, SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE AN OVERALL
DRIER DAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. LOW CEILINGS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE MAY
HOLD ON FOR A TIME ALONG THE COAST, BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY
SUSTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE
DEVELOPING, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS SCATTERED AT BEST. THIS WILL BE
THE LAST DAY OF THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WITH WINDS
SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY WE MAY SEE THEM MAKE IT RIGHT DOWN TO
THE COAST. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S, WITH
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE POTENTIALLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE COMING IN ON THE FRESH
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE, SO LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO END UP
IN THE 40S AREAWIDE TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND ENDS UP AS AN UPPER LOW
POSITIONING ITSELF OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT EVENTUALLY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RE-
SATURATE THE COLUMN AND BEGIN TO INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST GETS CLOSER. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF THE
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE AND COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE
NBM MEAN NOW OFFERING ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH. THE HIGHER
NUMBERS LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS WEEK, DYNAMICS WILL BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE, OWING TO A 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE REGION AND RATHER
ROBUST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THE 10TH PERCENTILE IS GENERALLY NEAR OR
ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. PWATS SURGE TO OVER AN INCH ON SUNDAY
WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MUCAPE REMAINS
NEAR ZERO, SUGGESTING AGAINST THUNDERSTORMS. CRASHING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO WIND DOWN. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES COOL, THERE
COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER, WITH WET FLAKES MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. NBM MEAN IS CURRENTLY
OFFERING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
COLD AND CRISP TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY OFFER HIGH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE, WITH A HARD FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG STORY SHORT, IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH THAN APRIL. GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OF THE COLD THOUGH, THANKS TO THE
HIGH SUN ANGLE.
A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES EVIDENT LATER INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN ANOMALOUS BLOCK DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM GREENLAND TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC, EFFECTIVELY FORCING THIS WEEKEND'S TROUGH TO
RETROGRADE WEST AND DETACH FROM JET STREAM FLOW. BOTTOM LINE,
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE
FIRST, WITH A FEW DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THE GOOD NEWS IS NO ONE DAY CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE A "WASHOUT".
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...LOW CEILINGS, FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL START
THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 12Z WITH MOST TERMINALS
BACK TO VFR BY 18Z. MHT AND PSM MAY SEE SOME MVFR IN RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON , BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE
AND IF THEY DON'T END UP DEVELOPING VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. VFR
PREVAILS UP TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN AND LOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY INTRODUCING
SOME MVFR BY THE EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT: IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL SITES, BUT FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR
INLAND.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN LIKELY WITH SCATTERED LIFR
CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR, EXCEPT MVFR REMAINS POSSIBLE
AT HIE.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WE SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT ONSHORE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT.
OTHERWISE, WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY. HIGHER WAVES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/BARON
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