369
FXUS61 KGYX 171036
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
636 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED BUT WE WILL SEE A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
PORTIONS OF COASTAL ME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMER AND DRIER TODAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
2. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
3. CRISP AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK, BUT THE LONG-
RANGE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED DEEPER INTO THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW CEILINGS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE MAY HOLD ON FOR A TIME ALONG THE
COAST, BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD LEAD
TO CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY SUSTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS
SCATTERED AT BEST. THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE NORTHERLY WE
MAY SEE THEM MAKE IT RIGHT DOWN TO THE COAST. MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S, WITH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
POTENTIALLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
BE COMING IN ON THE FRESH NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE, SO LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO END UP IN THE 40S AREAWIDE TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF AND ENDS UP AS AN UPPER LOW
POSITIONING ITSELF OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT EVENTUALLY THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RE-
SATURATE THE COLUMN AND BEGIN TO INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST GETS CLOSER. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF THE
COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE AND COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE, AND IN THE LOW
60S ACROSS INLAND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE BOARD FOR SUNDAY, WITH THE
NBM MEAN NOW OFFERING ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH. THE HIGHER
NUMBERS LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
IS LIKELY. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS WEEK, DYNAMICS WILL BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE, OWING TO A 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE REGION AND RATHER
ROBUST HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT. THE 10TH PERCENTILE IS GENERALLY NEAR OR
ABOVE A QUARTER OF AN INCH. PWATS SURGE TO OVER AN INCH ON SUNDAY
WHICH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MUCAPE REMAINS
NEAR ZERO, SUGGESTING AGAINST THUNDERSTORMS. CRASHING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AS PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO WIND DOWN. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST TEMPERATURES COOL, THERE
COULD BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER, WITH WET FLAKES MORE LIKELY ELSEWHERE. NBM MEAN IS CURRENTLY
OFFERING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
COLD AND CRISP TO START NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY OFFER HIGH TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE, WITH A HARD FREEZE LOOKING LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG STORY SHORT, IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MARCH THAN APRIL. GENERALLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TAKE THE EDGE OF THE COLD THOUGH, THANKS TO THE
HIGH SUN ANGLE.
A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES EVIDENT LATER INTO NEXT
WEEK. AN ANOMALOUS BLOCK DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM FROM GREENLAND TO
NORTHERN QUEBEC, EFFECTIVELY FORCING THIS WEEKEND'S TROUGH TO
RETROGRADE WEST AND DETACH FROM JET STREAM FLOW. BOTTOM LINE,
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED THAN THE
FIRST, WITH A FEW DIFFICULT-TO-TIME WAVES THAT MAY MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THE GOOD NEWS IS NO ONE DAY CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE A "WASHOUT".
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LOW CEILINGS, FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST TERMINALS FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. MOST SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR
CATEGORIES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. MHT AND PSM MAY SEE SOME
BRIEF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE AND IF THEY DON'T END
UP DEVELOPING VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS RETURN
EVERYWHERE BUT HIE/LEB TONIGHT AS STRATUS MOVES IN.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN AND LOWER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY INTRODUCING
SOME MVFR BY THE EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL.
SATURDAY NIGHT: IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO MARINE
FOG AND STRATUS AT THE COASTAL SITES, BUT FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR
INLAND.
SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN LIKELY WITH SCATTERED LIFR
CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR, EXCEPT MVFR REMAINS POSSIBLE
AT HIE.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WE SEE A BREAK IN ACTIVE WEATHER. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT ONSHORE SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
W-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT.
OTHERWISE, WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY. HIGHER WAVES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATER IN THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/BARON/HARGROVE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page