415
FXUS61 KGYX 191906
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
306 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING. COOL AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
2. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK COMBINED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
RAIN AND NORTHERN/MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL END BETWEEN 6-9 PM THIS
EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXIT TO OUR NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO 20S TO LOWER 30S FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD SOUTHWEST OF NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALLOW FOR CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME SFC HEATING WILL
ALLOW FOR WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED HEAVY SNOW SHOWER OR EVEN A SNOW SQUALL CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THE FOOTHILLS AND POINTS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST LOOKS TO FEATURE MEAN TROFING TO
OUR EAST AND RIDGE AXIS ALOFT CENTERED JUST TO OUR WEST. THE
END RESULT IS A PATTERN WHERE THE THREAT OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS
OR ONSHORE FLOW IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE. AS A RULE I WILL BE PRETTY
SKEPTICAL OF ANY MODELING OF SIGNIFICANT WARMTH IN SET UPS LIKE
THIS, BUT THE GOOD(?) NEWS IS THAT THE NBM IS IN AGREEMENT AND
TEMPS DURING THE DAY STAY IN THE 40S AND 50S THRU NEXT WEEK. THE
PATTERN WILL ALSO NOT BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF BROAD ASCENT ACROSS
THE REGION AND SO ANY PRECIP WILL BE MORE MESOSCALE AND
LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BECAUSE OF THE BLOCKY NATURE OF THE
PATTERN, ANY STORM SYSTEM LIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND WILL ALSO
TEND TO GET SHUNTED ALONG TO THE SOUTH. AS SUCH, ANY PRECIP
SHIELD THAT CAN MANAGE TO BRUSH THE AREA WILL HAVE SOME COOLER
AND DRIER AIR TO CONTEND WITH. ON WED FOR EXAMPLE SOME PRECIP
MAY CROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF TIMING
REMAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING, IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
WILL HAVE SOME DRY AIR TO FIGHT, AND SO I WOULD NOT EXPECT HEAVY
ENOUGH RATES FOR ACCUMULATION BUT ENOUGH TO SEE SOME FLAKES.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z MONDAY DUE TO
LOW CEILINGS AND RA. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
OVERNIGHT AS NW WINDS PERSIST AT 10-15 KTS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED RA AND SN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
LOCALIZED VIS RESTRICTIONS. NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT: BECOMING MVFR OR IFR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VIS
FORECAST, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
SCA NW WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
ACROSS THE BAYS. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE WINDS TUE INTO WED GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST AND THEN
WEST THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, WITH WINDS
REMAINING BREEZY AT BEST AND SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE FROM
THE COAST TO OUTER WATERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MARINE
FOG/STRATUS FORMATION TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH THE WARM FRONT
DRAPED NEARBY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/LEGRO
AVIATION...TUBBS/LEGRO
MARINE...TUBBS/LEGRO
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