421
FXUS61 KGYX 201012
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
612 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES START THE DAY BELOW FREEZING TODAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
2. A GENERALLY DRY WEEK WITH A SLIGHT (15-25%) CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY.
3. A COMPLEX UPPER-AIR PATTERN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY BY LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH DURING
THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING
BEFORE AN APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT LEADS TO CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL YIELD AROUND 100 J/KG OF MU CAPE LEADING TO RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT SNOW TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHILE SOME
GRAUPEL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 2500
FEET. FARTHER INLAND THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING AND REDUCE
VISIBILITY WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. CLOUD
COVER WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT WILL FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE TEENS NORTH THE MID 20S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER A HARD FREEZE ON TUESDAY MORNING, A MODERATING TREND SHOULD
COMMENCE AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS
DRY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MONDAY'S TROUGH. INCREASING CLOUDS
ARE LIKELY BY LATE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE.
A DIFFICULT-TO-TIME SHORTWAVE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO US ON WEDNESDAY. WITH POPS ONLY
HOVERING AROUND 15-25%, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY ANY
MEANS. WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES STILL LINGERING NEAR OR BELOW -10C,
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR INTERIOR ZONES TO SEE SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW-IMPACT EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HEIGHT RISES LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH GENERALLY 50S IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATE WEEK (40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN). IF ANY DAY ENDS UP FULLY
SUNNY, THERE IS A CHANCE THE WARM SPOTS COULD REACH THE 60S. OVERALL
THIS LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT AND DRY STRETCH.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND, UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL SPREAD
BECOMES EVIDENT. A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
WITH NORTHERN ATLANTIC BLOCKING, FEATURING A REX BLOCK OF SORTS FROM
NOVA SCOTIA UP TO GREENLAND. FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER, WE WILL BE ON
THE WEST EDGE OF A STALLED CUT-OFF TROUGH, AND THE EAST-WEST
PLACEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH. BETWEEN THE SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL.
WHAT CAN BE EXTRACTED CURRENTLY IS A CONTINUATION OF NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION TOWARDS 20-30%
BY SUNDAY. STAY TUNED FOR MUCH MORE CERTAINTY IN THE COMING DAYS AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE FEATURES ARE
RESOLVED.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED RA AND SN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED VIS
RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT: BECOMING MVFR OR IFR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VIS
FORECAST, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING
BELOW 25 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN LATE TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE
SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE WINDS GENERALLY STAY
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MARINE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO RETURN
AROUND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/HARGROVE/SCHROETER
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