060
FXUS61 KGYX 201233
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
833 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ORGANIZED BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND I
HAVE RAISED POP TO REFLECT THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME ACCUMULATION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES START THE DAY BELOW FREEZING TODAY FOLLOWED BY
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FROM MID MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
2. A GENERALLY DRY WEEK WITH A SLIGHT (15-25%) CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY.
3. A COMPLEX UPPER-AIR PATTERN LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY BY LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S
SOUTH DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. SKIES WILL START OFF MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS MORNING BEFORE AN APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS AND COLD
POOL ALOFT LEADS TO CU DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING. SURFACE
HEATING COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL YIELD AROUND 100 J/KG
OF MU CAPE LEADING TO RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW TO THE
SURFACE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WHILE SOME GRAUPEL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 2500 FEET. FARTHER INLAND
THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THAT COULD
PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING AND REDUCE VISIBILITY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO
UPPER 40S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
TONIGHT WILL FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE TEENS NORTH THE MID 20S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER A HARD FREEZE ON TUESDAY MORNING, A MODERATING TREND
SHOULD COMMENCE AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY
CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MONDAY'S TROUGH.
INCREASING CLOUDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE.
A DIFFICULT-TO-TIME SHORTWAVE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO US ON WEDNESDAY. WITH POPS
ONLY HOVERING AROUND 15-25%, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY
ANY MEANS. WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES STILL LINGERING NEAR OR
BELOW -10C, IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR INTERIOR ZONES TO SEE
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW-IMPACT
EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HEIGHT RISES LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH GENERALLY 50S IN THE FORECAST
FOR LATE WEEK (40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN). IF ANY DAY ENDS UP
FULLY SUNNY, THERE IS A CHANCE THE WARM SPOTS COULD REACH THE
60S. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT AND DRY STRETCH.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND, UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL SPREAD
BECOMES EVIDENT. A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE WITH NORTHERN ATLANTIC BLOCKING, FEATURING A REX BLOCK OF
SORTS FROM NOVA SCOTIA UP TO GREENLAND. FOR OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER, WE WILL BE ON THE WEST EDGE OF A STALLED CUT-OFF
TROUGH, AND THE EAST-WEST PLACEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE REMAINS
HIGH. BETWEEN THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL. WHAT CAN BE EXTRACTED
CURRENTLY IS A CONTINUATION OF NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION TOWARDS 20-30% BY SUNDAY.
STAY TUNED FOR MUCH MORE CERTAINTY IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MULTIPLE FEATURES ARE
RESOLVED.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED RA AND SN SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF LOCALIZED VIS
RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT: BECOMING MVFR OR IFR CIGS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VIS
FORECAST, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: BECOMING VFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING BELOW 25 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN LATE
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A WARM FRONT APPROACHING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE
SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE WINDS GENERALLY STAY
BELOW 25 KTS AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
MARINE FOG/STRATUS FORMATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE WARM FRONT APPROACHING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO RETURN
AROUND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO
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