742
FXUS61 KGYX 201857
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOL, DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A HARD FREEZE AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
2. A MODERATING PATTERN RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, ALONG
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
3. AS TEMPERATURES WARM, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE BETWEEN
ROUNDS OF PRECIP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
TEMPS IN THE 40S BUT VERY COLD DEWPOINTS ARE ALLOWING MUCH OF
THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON TO REMAIN SNOW OR AT LEAST A SNOW/RAIN
MIX. I HAVE OPTED FOR ALLOWING SNOW BELOW 40 DEGREE WET BULBS
IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BUT
STEADILY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEN RIDGE
AXIS SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS IT GETS CLEAR AND
CALM TEMPS WILL PLUMMET IN A DRY AIR MASS. A WIDESPREAD HARD
FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ANY EARLY PLANT GROWTH OR SENSITIVE
VEGETATION SHOULD BE PROTECTED. NOT MUCH HEATING IS EXPECTED
TUE, MAYBE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. HOWEVER, IT
WILL BE VERY DRY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING EASILY MIXING
THRU 850 MB DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD TAP SINGLE DIGIT
DEWPOINTS ALOFT. I HAVE BLENDED THOSE MIXED DOWN DEWPOINTS WITH
NBM GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE A DEWPOINT FORECAST MAINLY IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS. THE RESULT IS WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RH BETWEEN 20
AND 25 PERCENT, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE GOOD NEWS
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. IT
WILL GET BREEZY WITH ANY SEA BREEZE THAT FORMS, BUT DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO COME UP SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THAT FRONT. FINALLY A
WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA WED. SOME LIGHT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT AND THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SUPPORT SNOW OR SNOW MIXING IN. IF ENOUGH PRECIP CAN
OCCUR BEFORE SUNRISE, THERE MAY ALSO BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN
PLACES, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A MODERATING TREND GETS UNDERWAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARMER
AIRMASS FOLLOWS THE PASSING COLD FRONT ON WESTERLY FLOW. THE
WARMING AIRMASS WON'T BE EVIDENT WITH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY,
AS HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY'S, BUT WILL BE NOTED BY
INCREASING DEW POINTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. BY
THURSDAY, THE WARMTH WILL BE MORE EVIDENT AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER ON THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE PUSHING BACK TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL MAINE AS A TROUGH LINGERS TO THE EAST OF MAINE, WITH
DRIER AND BRIGHTER CONDITIONS TO THE WEST.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSES
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ATLANTIC
CANADA WORKS TO SUPPRESS MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF NEW ENGLAND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHETHER OR
NOT PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, BUT THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SHOWERS WOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. JUST HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
REACH NEW ENGLAND WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM HIGHS WILL REACH EACH
DAY. SHOULD SUNSHINE PREVAIL, HIGHS COULD EASILY FIND THEIR WAY
INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S THIS WEEKEND, WHILE RAINIER SOLUTIONS
WOULD KEEP HIGHS LIMITED TO THE 50S. SO THIS REMAINS AN ITEM TO
WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AS CONDITIONS WARM AND SHOWERS DEPART, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DO
INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS MAINE.
BREEZY NORTHWEST CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY ON THURSDAY. THEN ON
FRIDAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL AREAS, BUT WITH
LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS. UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIP TOWARD NEW ENGLAND, BUT MAY
NOT MANAGE TO REACH MOST OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY, THOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE IN SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL THEY DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. THEN VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU TUE.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY: ANY LINGERING MVFR IMPROVES TO VFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR MOST LIKELY, BUT SOME SHOWERS AND MVFR
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN TERMINALS.
MARINE
OFFSHORE WINDS THRU TONIGHT BECOMING ONSHORE TUE THRU WED.
WINDS AND SEAS BOTH LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS WED MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
LOOK TO MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SCA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/LEGRO
AVIATION...CLAIR/LEGRO
MARINE...CLAIR/LEGRO
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