650
FXUS61 KGYX 211055
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
655 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TODAY. THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WITH
MIN RH AROUND 20-25 PERCENT, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
2. TEMPERATURES MODERATE MID WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
3. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING YIELDING A COLD
START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS NORTH AND 20S
SOUTH. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START WILL TRANSITION TO MIX A SUN
AND CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT,
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH DROPPING
TO AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND PRESS
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HELPING TO INCREASE RH ALONG THE
COAST INTO THE INTERIOR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 MPH OR LESS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE SEA BREEZE BRINGING GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE FOOTHILLS NORTHWARD AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S WITH LOW 50S
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE LACKING MOISTURE, BUT
WILL AGAIN BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES DO MODERATE ALOFT
LEADING TO HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE RISK FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODESTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY DIURNAL BREEZE. THESE WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENT, AND COULD ALLOW FOR STRONGER MIXING
AND A DRIER COLUMN SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY COULD BE
ANOTHER DRY DAY TOO, WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, THOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY COULD IMPROVE AND BECOME MORE MOIST FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR TODAY. A SEA BREEZE WILL BRING A
SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND SOME GUSTS TO PSM/PWM/RKD EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN AGAIN IN THE EVENING. EXPECT A
MORE WIDESPREAD THICKENING AND LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES THIS
EVENING, WITH MVFR SETTLING OVER MUCH OF NH BY 12Z WED. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IF A SECOND AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG AND
INLAND FROM THE ME MIDCOAST EARLY WED MORNING, BUT OVERALL TREND
WILL BE MVFR TOWARDS NOONTIME. SHRASN ARRIVES WITH THESE LOWERED
CEILINGS, WITH SN CAUSING DECREASED VIS FOR FOOTHILL AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY- WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW CEILINGS AND LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING PERIODS OF MVFR. OTHERWISE, PERIODS OF
VFR ARE LIKELY.
THURSDAY: CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS. SOUTHERN NH TAF SITES LIKELY
REMAIN VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR MOST LIKELY.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND SETTLES SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT. OFFSHORE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING TURN ONSHORE TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG. WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PALMER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...CORNWELL
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