446
FXUS61 KGYX 211836
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WEEKEND FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
2. A MODERATING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH WEEKEND CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER.
3. AFTER SOME SHOWERS ACROSS MAINE ON THURSDAY, DRY CONDITIONS
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
COOL BUT VERY DRY AFTERNOON IS ALLOWING RH TO DROP INTO THE
EXPECTED 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THAT WILL RECOVER NICELY TONIGHT HOWEVER, AS
ANOTHER COLD ONE IS ANTICIPATED. WHILE NOT RECORD- BREAKING,
TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
FROST/HARD FREEZES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AGAIN.
LIGHT PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT
AROUND DAYBREAK WED. IT IS A TOUGH FORECAST FOR PRECIP TYPE.
SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE,
AND WOULD BE MOSTLY DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS. THIS IS PROBABLY MOST
LIKELY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIP WHERE FULL SATURATION WILL
BE HARDER TO ACHIEVE. HOWEVER WHERE DEEPER SATURATION CAN
OCCUR, LIKE OVER SOUTHERN NH, FORECAST SOUNDINGS WED MORNING ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. I COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS, ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY SURFACES, BEFORE TEMPS WARM
DURING THE DAY. IF IT CAN SNOW HARD ENOUGH, SOME VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON ROADS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN HOW COLD THE MORNINGS
HAVE BEEN RECENTLY.
THEN THINGS DRY OUT AGAIN FOR THU. MODEST MIXING WILL ALLOW
DEWPOINTS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. MINIMUM RH WILL DROP TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN
ABOVE 35 ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS MAINE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY,
KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY. THESE KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE 40S TO
MID 50S. NEW HAMPSHIRE LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ON THURSDAY,
WITH A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE,
HIGH WARM INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
BY FRIDAY, TEMPS STALL AS A COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN WITH
BUILDING BROAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA, ALONG WITH MORE
SUNSHINE. THIS HIGH THEN LOOKS LIKELY TO KEEP MOISTURE FROM A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE PLAINS AWAY FROM OUR
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE STEADILY TRENDED DRIER OVER
THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH ALL EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW KEEPING
PRECIP AWAY ON THE LATEST 06Z RUN. THIS BRINGS MORE SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND THAN THE RAINIER OUTCOME WOULD
HAVE YIELDED. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S LOOK
LIKELY BOTH DAYS NOW, WITH ANY RAIN CHANCES MOST LIKELY HOLDING
OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS LIKELY KNOCKS
TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
WITH THE DRYING AND MODERATING PATTERN, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DO INCREASE BY LATE WEEK. THURSDAY LOOKS DRY AND BREEZY ACROSS
NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH, BUT
MORE HUMID AND SHOWERY ACROSS MAINE. FRIDAY LOOKS DRIER FOR BOTH
STATES, BUT RELATIVELY COOLER AND WITH LESS OF A BREEZE. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT. SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG WITH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT MORE OFTEN THAN NOT BE VERY LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTH. TOWARDS DAYBREAK CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY RIGHT AROUND
1000 FT, SO IT MAY BE AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS AND THE FORECAST
IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. GIVEN THAT IT WAS CLOSE TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD I OPTED TO KEEP CIGS MVFR FOR NOW. PRECIP WILL BE
LIGHT WED, BUT SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NH. ELSEWHERE IT MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE THAN
RAIN/SNOW, BUT SOME MVFR OR LOWER VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY: CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS ACROSS MAINE. SOUTHERN NH TAF SITES
LIKELY REMAIN VFR.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THU. SEA BREEZE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO OFFSHORE WINDS WED AND
THU. SOME NORTHWESTERLY 25KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS EASTERN MAINE. THEN
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/LEGRO
AVIATION...CLAIR/LEGRO
MARINE...CLAIR/LEGRO
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