085
FXUS61 KGYX 220619
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
219 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A DRYING TREND SW TO
NE.
2. A MODERATING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH WEEKEND CONDITIONS TRENDING DRIER. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE
AREA WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND DAY BREAK. THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PRECIP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NEW
HAMPSHIRE TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MAY START OUT AS SOME
SNOW WHILE INCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE IS LESS BULLISH ON ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CHANCES FOR INTERMITTENT
RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS WILL
BE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 40S.
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE DIVING SE OUT OF CANADA WILL
SWING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN
RELATIVE GOOD AGREEMENT THIS SHORT WAVE WILL AID IN THE
FORMATION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE AND INVERTED TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
CENTRAL MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHILE SOUTH-CENTRAL
NH AND SW MAINE SEE CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS
THAT SEE SUNSHINE SHOULD EXPERIENCE MIXING ALLOWING FOR MIN RH
TO DROP AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR
SW MAINE ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAK BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST MOSTLY IN THE 50S THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DRY SURFACE AIR LOOKS TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AND WILL ALLOW FOR A DIURNAL BREEZE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY. WINDS DO LOOK CALMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MINIMUM
RH VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 25-45% RANGE FOR ALL THREE DAYS AT
THIS TIME. THESE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
ALLOW FOR HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER, WITH CAMP AND BUSH FIRES
POTENTIALLY SPREADING EASILY AND BECOMING HARDER TO EXTINGUISH.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM A LITTLE AS THE
MID-LEVEL BLOCK PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FLATTENS AND RIDGING
CONTINUES TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER FOR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER FROM SW TO NE
WITH CIGS APPROACHING MVFR AT ALL SITES BY 18Z. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA SW TO NE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY DRIZZLE. UNCERTAINTY FOR COVERAGE
OF IFR, WHICH MAY REMAIN SCT UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH SHOWERS
EXITING, CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RESTRICTION INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY: CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND KENNEBEC
VALLEY. SOUTHERN NH TAF SITES AND PWM LIKELY SEE PREVAILING
VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS WHILE GUSTS WILL BE LESS THAN 25 KTS.
WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND WILL LARGELY REMAIN OFFSHORE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/PALMER/SCHROETER
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