495
FXUS61 KGYX 221842
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
242 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME SNOWFLAKES OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER THURSDAY.
2. A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE DRIER
CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE COOL PATTERN CONTINUES OVERALL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY
INSISTENT THAT WARM ADVECTION OVER THE TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD
WILL RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IT
ALSO FORECAST THAT FOR MUCH OF TODAY AND THAT HAS NOT PANNED
OUT. SO I KNOCKED POP DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE OVERNIGHT TO MENTION
SCATTERED SHOWERS. SHOWERS LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT SWEEPS OUT TO SEA EARLY THU MORNING. SO I LEFT POP
ALONE THERE. OVERALL IT WILL BE A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT, UNLIKELY
TO LEAD TO A WETTING RAIN, BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME FLAKES MIXING IN AT TIMES AND MAYBE EVEN ALL SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OVER WESTERN MAINE.
THU AFTERNOON WILL BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER, CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. IT WILL ALSO RETURN US TO DRY WEATHER. I DID MIX IN
SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS AS IS THE NORM FOR THE SPRING PRE-GREEN UP.
GIVEN THE CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ZONES AND COOLER TEMPS, THE ONLY
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT RH ARE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF NH. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZIER, WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE. SO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A 500MB LOW WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY, AND
A SHORTWAVE STEMMING FROM THIS LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE
DAY. THIS SHOULD BRING MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CLOUD
COVER AS THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS GENERALLY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
PRECIP, BUT THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LOW-LOWEL LAPSE RATES, AROUND 100 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT, SO CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL
HAIL OR GRAUPEL IF ANY SHOWERS DO FORM. FARTHER NORTH IN THE
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS, SOME OF THESE MAY BE MIXED WITH SNOW.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT 40S ACROSS
THE NORTH.
ENSEMBLES THEN CONTINUE TO FAVOR A STRETCH OF MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY CLOSE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RANGING FROM THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONE THING TO
WATCH FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON SUN-MON THAT MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS WITH IT, BUT MOST GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN FAVOR OF
THE LOW STAYING MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS STRETCH OF
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER COULD BRING INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS LOOK GENERALLY LIGHT.
THERE IS A BETTER SIGNAL FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF WET WEATHER TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGING SHIFTING OFF THE EAST AND
MORE OF A TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES IN THE
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST THRU THU.
WIDESPREAD MVFR RIGHT NOW, BUT GUIDANCE IS QUITE PESSIMISTIC
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE TWO CAMPS, MVFR AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE THINKS IT SHOULD BE IFR, SO I AM
LEANING TOWARDS KEEPING MOST SITES MVFR THRU THE NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AUG/RKD WHERE IFR CIGS WILL START TO CREEP IN
AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL ALSO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. I THINK ULTIMATELY SOME
LOWER VIS IS FOG IS MORE LIKELY THAN SHOWERS REDUCING VIS.
CONDITIONS WILL SCATTER OUT TO VFR BY THU AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF AUG AND RKD.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY. HOWEVER, IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THERE IS
A BETTER CHANCE THE LOW AND SHOWERS STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND
CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR.
MARINE
SOME MARGINAL SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS INTO FRI. THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
POOLING TONIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THRU THE AREA. SOME
INDICATIONS THAT FOG MAY TRY AND FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND
RIGHT NOW THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE WATERS NORTH OF PORT
CLYDE INTO PENOBSCOT BAY IF IT OCCURS.
FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH THE REGION TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TO BRING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THRU TONIGHT, BUT THE CHANCES OF A
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT ARE LOW. AS A RESULT THE RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS THU WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF SOUTHERN NH
DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH. WINDS DIMINISH A LITTLE FRI BUT REMAIN BREEZY WITH
THE AREA OF SUB-30 PERCENT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPANDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINE. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THRU
THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/COMBS
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