899
FXUS61 KGYX 242329
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
729 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
DID EXTEND THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER A LITTLE LONGER AT IT HANGS
TOUGH FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
2. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AFTER A DRY START.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH
MORE IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER OVERALL. I'VE GONE A BIT COOLER THAN THE NBM FOR LOWS
WITH MORE READINGS IN THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST (EXCEPT
SOUTHERN NH WHERE MORE CLOUDS COULD LINGER), AND IT'S POSSIBLE
SOME OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS REACH THE UPPER TEENS.
SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD, CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH
MOST IN MID TO UPPER THE 50S, POSSIBLY AROUND 60 DEGREES IN
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. HOWEVER, WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT,
THE SEABREEZE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND TO COOL THINGS OFF A
BIT AT AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BRING ANY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, BUT WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT DOESN'T LOOK AS COOL DUE TO THE INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM THE PASSING LOW TO THE SOUTH. MOST WILL SEE LOWS IN
THE 30S, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN AREAS STILL MAY SEE 20S WITH LESS
CLOUDS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY TO START TO THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS DRIER WEATHER LASTS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS SINCE
YESTERDAY ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A REX BLOCK LASTING
INTO MIDWEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES SUPPRESSING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE AN
INVERTED TROUGH FORMING, WHICH SOME MODELS HAVE HINTED AT, THAT
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY MORE AMPLIFIED
SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING INTO NEW ENGLAND, SO I AM NOT PUTTING
TOO MUCH WEIGHT ON THIS SOLUTION. UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TRACK
IS STILL HIGH AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN CAMPS BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
FASTER, BRINGING IT NORTH FASTER. THIS STARTS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE EURO CAMP HAS HIGH PRESSURE STAVING
IT OFF FOR AN ADDITIONAL 24 HOURS, UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
IMPORTANT TAKE AWAY HERE IS THAT THE ENSEMBLE SIGNAL IS SOLID,
SO EXPECT RAIN AROUND MIDWEEK, BUT TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE
NAILED DOWN. QPF IS THE NEXT AREA OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ENSEMBLE
SPREADS AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS BEING HIGH DUE TO THAT
UNCERTAIN TRACK, BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME INCREASINGLY
JUICIER MEMBERS HAVE BEEN POPPING UP. FOR RIGHT NOW THOUGH THE
NBM 75TH PERCENTILE IS AROUND A HALF INCH AND THE 25TH
PERCENTILE IS...NOTHING AT ALL, SO IT IS VERY MUCH A WAIT AND
SEE SITUATION. BEYOND THIS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH A
DEEPER UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
SERIES OF FRONTS TAKE AIM AT THE REGION. IT'S TOO EARLY TO
SPECULATE ON HOW EXACTLY THAT PLAYS OUT, BUT I HAVE NO PROBLEM
WITH THE BROAD BRUSH SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY TO COVER THE
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A SEABREEZE IS LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS
(WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KT POSSIBLE) BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING
OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND MAY MAKE IT INLAND TOWARD CON AND AUG
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
REST OF SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT: PREVAILING VFR.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: GENERALLY VFR, BUT MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY. COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS NEXT WEEK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. WINDS BECOME MORE
ONSHORE CLOSER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT.
WIND GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
THE DAY NEXT FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN WAVE
HEIGHTS (AROUND 5-8 FT) THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE ENTERS THE GULF OF MAINE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/COMBS/EKSTER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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