499
FXUS61 KGYX 250625
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM THE GOING FORECAST. A RELATIVELY
QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MID NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE UNTIL THEN. CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN PRECIPITATION TIMING NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
2. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAKES A RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AFTER A DRY START.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING IN
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH A
COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE COAST CAN EXPECT A COOLING
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS GO
LOCALLY ONSHORE. RH VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND 30S
TODAY AND THEN TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 12 MPH BOTH DAYS. SOME CLOUDS MAY INVADE
SOUTHERN ZONES LATER ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR
SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DRY START TO THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NEW ENGLAND, SUPPRESSING A COASTAL STORM SOUTH
OF THE REGION. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS DRIER WEATHER
LASTS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS, SINCE YESTERDAY, ENSEMBLE MEANS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A REX BLOCK LASTING INTO MIDWEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING IS STILL HIGH, BUT HAVE SEEN A BIT OF A TREND TOWARDS A
SLOWER ONSET TO PRECIPITATION, DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IT MAKES
SENSE TO SEE A CAVE AWAY FROM THE MORE PROGRESSIVE OUTCOMES GIVEN
THE RATHER BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED UPPER-AIR CONFIGURATION.
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, POPS ARE GENERALLY 40-70%
REGIONWIDE THE ENTIRE THREE DAYS, INDICATING A WET SEQUENCE. IT
IS LIKELY WE WILL HAVE SOME ON-OFF PERIODS OF RAINY WEATHER
RATHER THAN IT RAIN THE ENTIRE THREE DAYS. BY THIS RANGE THERE
ARE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND
EVOLUTION. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
RIDING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD, WHILE OTHERS SHOW A LOW
CUTTING OFF FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND STALLING OVER THE
REGION. FINALLY, IT IS WORTH MENTIONING TOTAL PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY HAS THE NBM MEAN NEAR OR ABOVE AN INCH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, SO WHILE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
SPACED OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS, WE REMAIN HOPEFUL IN SOME NEEDED
DROUGHT RELIEF.
SPEAKING TEMPERATURES, IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE A COOLING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE ON THE INCREASE.
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF NEXT WEEK'S SURFACE FEATURES, WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS
COOL CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES FOCUSED ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-93 CORRIDOR.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH TODAY. A SEABREEZE IS
LIKELY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS TURNING SOUTHEAST MOST TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: GENERALLY VFR, BUT MVFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY. COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS NEXT WEEK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US.
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WINDS AND SEAS WILL RISE AND MAY FLIRT WITH
LOW-END SCA THRESHOLDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/EKSTER/SCHROETER
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