827
FXUS61 KGYX 260640
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE TUESDAY WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
2. WET WEATHER MAKES A RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARBY OR JUST TO THE EAST WE CAN
EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW MUCH OF THE TIME WHICH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WEDNESDAY KICKS OFF A PATTERN CHANGE TO RAINY CONDITIONS, BUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES PEAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHERE A SOAKING RAIN
LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. WEDNESDAY SHOWS SCATTERED (20-40%) RAIN
CHANCES AS SOME REMNANT ENERGY WITH THE OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW MAY
PHASE WITH THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BY
THURSDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE WIDESPREAD (80-100%) AS THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES IN. SOME NEWER GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
DUAL LOW PRESSURE STRUCTURE, WITH A SECOND LOW FORMING NEAR THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST AS THE FIRST LOW CUTS NORTH INTO QUEBEC. THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN OUR
VICINITY. BY FRIDAY, MODEL SPREAD BECOMES EVIDENT, AS SOME
GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUGGEST A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS, BUT OTHERS SHOW THE SECOND LOW CUTTING OFF
OVER NEW ENGLAND, LEADING TO CONTINUED RAINY CONDITIONS INTO
THE WEEKEND (ALTHOUGH IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE RAINING THE ENTIRE
TIME).
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IS ON THE WAY? NBM HAS A WIDESPREAD 1-2
INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, SPECIFICALLY FOR THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, AND SOME EYE-POPPING VALUES FOR
THE 90TH PERCENTILE (2-4 INCHES). KEEP IN MIND THIS IS
REPRESENTING A THREE DAY RAINFALL. THEREFORE, RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BUT REGARDLESS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAINFALL WHICH COULD HELP MAKE A MUCH
NEEDED DENT IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FINALLY, WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT, THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TODAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH VFR EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED. E WINDS AT 5-10 KTS. COASTAL
TERMINALS MAY SEE WINDS UP TO 15 KTS WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED. E-SE WINDS AT 10-20 KTS.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOWERING CEILINGS WITH RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY WITH DEVELOPING RA. WINDS MAY EXCEED 15 KTS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH PERIODS OF RA. WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
DUE TO BUILDING SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
OVER THE GULF OF ME. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER
WATERS THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/EKSTER/SCHROETER
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