083
FXUS61 KGYX 270636
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST AS LATEST
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
RESPECT TO DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY AND POTENTIAL WET WEATHER
MID AND LATE WEEK. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR TODAY AND
TUESDAY AND ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES.
2. WET WEATHER MAKES A RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (MAYBE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS INLAND).
BY THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT A FEW UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FEW LOWER 70S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR BUT A TOUCH COOLER, DRIER, AND A LITTLE
BIT BREEZIER AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MODESTLY TIGHTENS. THERE WILL BE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF COASTAL AREAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE 8 TO 15 MPH RANGE ARE
IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE.
THUS, WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND IT WILL BE PERIOD TO WATCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
A LOBE OF REMNANT MOISTURE FROM AN OFFSHORE STORM WILL PINWHEEL
TOWARDS THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. COULD SEE SOME OCEAN-ENHANCED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND THE MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD. PRECIPITATION
LOOKS SCATTERED WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE MAINE COAST.
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL THEN ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. LATEST NBM AND ENSEMBLE
BASED GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING BETWEEN 1-2" OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
LOW RIVER/STREAM FLOWS, FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A CONCERN.
THIS SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND CUTOFF
FROM THE MAIN STEERING FLOW THROUGH POTENTIALLY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED STRETCH OF CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE BELOW AVERAGE DURING THIS STRETCH.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR PREVAILS WITH EASTERLY WINDS, VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOWERING CEILINGS WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE BY 18Z, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHRA ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. E WINDS AT 5-15 KTS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
RA. E-NE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS.
FRIDAY: RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE BUT WITH SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.
SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 3-6 FT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, LIKELY NECESSITATING A PROLONGED SCA. IN
ADDITION, A PERIOD OF E-SE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KTS IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY W WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND PENOBSCOT BAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/EKSTER/SCHROETER
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