075
FXUS61 KGYX 271844
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
244 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.
2. WET WEATHER MAKES A RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
OTHER THAN SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS, IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEW POINTS
WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MOSTLY INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY,
ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. AFTERNOON MIXING INTO A VERY DRY AIRMASS ABOVE WILL ALLOW
AFTERNOON RH TO FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S PERCENT RANGE
INLAND FROM THE COAST. ALONG THE COAST, RH WILL BE HIGHER DUE
TO ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH ARE
ALSO EXPECTED, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S INLAND WITH THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LOWS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
30S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS
DOWN AND WE BEGIN TO EXIT OUT OF OUR DRY STRETCH. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL BRING HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE OVER
PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE MIDCOAST, WHERE THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOLER TEMPS
IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S...BUT POSSIBLY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AS WELL. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LESS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WESTWARD EXTENT, SO MUCH OF NH STILL SHOULD STILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS STILL ON TAP FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY THURSDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
OUT AHEAD OF IT PROVIDE ONGOING LIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE MOSTLY
1-2" MOSTLY ACROSS THE BOARD, ALTHOUGH SOME WETTER ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS STILL SUGGEST LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 3" ARE
POSSIBLE. EVEN WITH THESE AMOUNTS, WE AREN'T EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES GIVEN THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS AND LONGER DURATION OF
THE RAINFALL, BUT RAIN COULD STILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED CAPE, WHICH MAY ALSO
PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD
OF BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE COAST AS SECONDARY LOW MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH END TIMING OF THE WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAIN IS STILL IN
QUESTION, WE SHOULD SEE A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DOWNWARD TREND
EITHER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY OR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY AS START
GETTING SOME DRIER AIR MOVE IN. THAT SAID, THIS MAY BE FOLLOWED
BY A PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND THEN A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY LOOKS DRIER OVERALL, BUT THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BRING A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY.
THERE'S ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AROUND
SUNDAY BUT IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THOSE ENSEMBLES MEMBERS
SUGGESTING THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP (MAINLY IN THE GFS CAMP)
DEPICT ANOTHER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE MOST OF
THE ECMWF MEMBERS ARE DRIER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. AT THE LEAST,
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH THE
UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHEAST US AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY, OUTSIDE OF
PERHAPS SOME OVERNIGHT VALLEY FG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME SE ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. NO LLWS
IS ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FOR THE
WESTERN ME TERMINALS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: IFR TO LIFR LIKELY WITH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR VFR
POSSIBLE WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY STILL PRODUCE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW.
A LONG PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY, MAINLY DUE TO SEAS. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS MAY
EXCEED 25 KT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE. ANOTHER LOW MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF INCREASED WINDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT MONDAY, BUT THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW IS UNCERTAIN.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/COMBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page